Draft profiles: Jake Odorizzi and J.J. Hoover
By Jason E | May 20, 2008
Jake Odorizzi, rhp, Highland HS (IL)
1st-Supplemental
Odorizzi has a combination of stuff, command, and polish that reminds me of other recent draftees (such as Zack Greinke, Phil Hughes, and Yovani Gallardo) who have ascended quickly from high school to the major leagues. He throws 5 pitches, all of which project out as average or better. His four-seamer regularly comes in at the low-90s with movement and can touch 94-95. He also throws a two-seamer with even more movement at 88-92 mph. His two breaking pitches, a high-70s slider and low-70s curve, are both potential out pitches. His changeup lags behind his other pitches in terms of consistency, but shows potential as well. With the exception of the change, he has plus command of all his pitches. At 6′2, 175 lbs, he is still projectable. He’s just recently started to get the attention of a first round pick, but in my opinion, Odorizzi is the best high school pitcher in the draft.
J.J. Hoover, rhp, Calhoun Community College (AL)
5th-10th
Pitching at the JUCO level, Hoover dominated inferior competition with his explosive, mid-90s fastball. He also features a slider, curve, and changeup. With four pitches and the ability to maintain his velocity deep into games, Hoover should be given a chance to start. However, his secondary pitches must continue to improve and if one emerges above the rest, he could be converted into a hard-throwing, late inning reliever.
Topics: AnyBodyButBengie, MLB Draft | 1 Comment »
Draft coverage: Prospect Profiles
By Jason E | May 18, 2008
With less than 3 weeks until draft day, I’d like to start sharing some players who have caught my attention. These won’t necessarily be the very best players in the draft - in fact, I’m going to refrain from profiling the consensus top 10 picks - instead they are players who I believe represent great value given where they are expected to go.
I’ll start today with high school outfielder Zach Collier and college pitcher Derrick Saito. Here is a brief scouting report on each as well as where they are projected to go on June 5th. I hope to roll out two players every few days until draft day, so stay tuned.
Zach Collier, of, Chino Hills HS (CA)
1st-Supplemental
He’s a raw high school outfielder, which usually scares me away, but Collier has a compact, left-handed swing and big time raw power. He’s young for his year and both his skills and draft status have been rapidly improving. Collier has good speed, but figures to end up in a corner spot once he’s done growing. His arm is just average so that may be left field, but his bat should be enough to carry him.
Derrick Saito, lhp, California Polytechnic State University
3rd-8th
A college lefty with mid-90s heat and a very good curveball, why is he not projected in the top 10? Well, because he’s a 5′7, 155 lb. walk-on. Though he has a deep enough repertoire to start (he also throws a cutter and changeup), most teams would move him to the bullpen because of his size. Though you never know, there may be a team out there willing to give him a shot as a starter. Saito’s command is only average, but it’s tough to imagine him not reaching the major leagues in some capacity if that golden left arm holds up.
Topics: AnyBodyButBengie, MLB Draft | No Comments »
Refugees Draft Coverage: Basics
By Jason E | May 16, 2008
The first-year player draft is scheduled to begin at 2pm on Thursday, June 5th. For just the second time ever, the 1st round of the draft will be televised on ESPN2.
The draft is 50 rounds and takes place over the course of two days. The Mets have their full complement of draft picks since the first time since 2004. They pick at:
18. (compensation for Tom Glavine)
22.
33. (compensation for Tom Glavine)
68.
100.
134.
and every 30 picks thereafter.
To be eligible, a player must be a resident of the U.S. or Canada. High school seniors, Junior College players, and college juniors and seniors (as well as underclassmen over the age of 21) are eligible. Freshmen and sophomores at four-year colleges cannot be selected unless, as mentioned, they are over the age of 21.
Key terms:
signability - Talented players often fall in the draft due to “signability” concerns. A player who is considered difficult to sign is generally perceived to be asking for too much money and has other options (such as attending college) should they choose not to sign. Scott Boras clients often drop for this reason.
overslot - Refers to the slot values published by MLB. These are guidelines for how much a player taken at a certain point in the draft should be paid. They are not binding and teams go over them on a regular basis. Some teams pay more attention to slot values than others.
Remember, you can follow the Mets draft beginning on June 5th on ESPN2, MLB.com, or right here at Mets Refugees.
Topics: AnyBodyButBengie, MLB Draft | No Comments »
Kazmir Signs Extension with Devil Rays
By Dan | May 14, 2008
According to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times, Scott Kazmir has signed a 4-year extension with the Devil Rays.
The Rays and ace LHP Scott Jesus have agreed on a four-year contract extension, which will guarantee the lefty $28.5 million and has a maxium value of approximately $39.5 million.
The first three years of the agreement, covering 2009-2011, are guaranteed with the team holding an option for the 2012 season.
(Source)
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Citi Field Update 5/13/08
By Dan M. | May 13, 2008
Here is the latest on Citi Field. You can see the most recent pictures on Webshots and the Refugees forum.
Workers recently finished installing the arched steel on top of the CF scoreboard, meaning that the entire structure of Citi Field is now in place. Aside from the laying of bricks, installation of signage, and the completion of a small portion of facade along the first base line (where a construction elevator is currently attached), what you see now as you walk by Citi Field is what you will see over the next fifty years.
Installation of seats continues in the upper portion of the promenade level. Installation of seats has recently begun in the lower promenade level seats and the RF “Pepsi Porch.”
Work is progressing at a rapid pace on all of the interior areas of the ballpark, including the administration building, rotunda, concourses, clubhouses, and luxury suites. As Citi Field nears completion, the majority of work will be done on these interior areas, and will not be visible to fans walking around outside the park.
Check back soon for the next Citi Field update.
Topics: Citi Field, nymdan | No Comments »
Claudio Vargas starting tomorrow; Castillo to DL?
By Dan M. | May 13, 2008
Adam Rubin of the NY Daily News is reporting that Claudio Vargas will be called up from AAA New Orleans to make the start for the Mets tomorrow against Washington. It was previously thought that Adam Bostick would get the start.
Rubin also reports that Fernando Tatis looks like he’s also coming to Shea, meaning that 2B Luis Castillo might be heading to the DL. (Source)
Topics: News, nymdan | No Comments »
Refugees Draft Coverage ‘08: A review of last year’s draft
By Jason E | May 12, 2008
We begin our coverage with a review of last year’s draft class.
First Round
Pick went to the Giants for the signing of Moises Alou. (They took HS outfielder Wendell Fairley.)
Supplemental Round
42. Eddie Kunz, rhp, Oregon State
Armed with a heavy, mid-90s sinker that generates tons of groundballs and a biting slider to get strikeouts, Kunz was advertised as a potential closer who could move quickly through the system. His stuff has lived up to its billing. Kunz has a groundball-flyball ratio of nearly 4-1 this season at Double-A Binghamton and has yet to allow a HR as a pro (he only allowed one in his college career, as a freshman). He has struck out 20 batters in 27.2 pro innings. However, poor control and an inability to retire left-handers continue to hold Kunz back. He is walking nearly six batters per 9 innings as a pro. So far this season, Kunz has held right-handed batters to a .125 average, while lefties are hitting .375 against him.
47. Nathan Vineyard, lhp, Woodland HS (GA)
A polished, yet projectable lefty, Vineyard fell victim to a season-ending shoulder injury earlier this month. Using an 88-91 mph fastball, big slider, and solid changeup, Vineyard struck out 105 and walked only 12 in his senior season at Woodland. Vineyard showed promise before going down with the injury, striking out 33 in 27.1 innings in his pro debut with the GCL Mets, although with an ERA over 5.
Second Round
77. Scott Moviel, rhp, St. Edward HS (OH)
At 6-10, 245 lbs, Moviel is enormous. He was considered a project out of high school since he had split his time between baseball and basketball, but Moviel went on to surprise some after signing by posting a 3.38 ERA in 40 GCL innings. It has been a struggle for Moviel this season at Savannah (7.53 ERA through seven starts), but he still has tremendous potential. He features a 90-93 mph fastball that he throws on a downhill plane and a slow, mid-70s curve that he commands well, although it is not considered an out pitch. With his frame, more velocity could come in the future and he continues to work on his secondary pitches.
93. Brant Rustich, rhp, UCLA
Scouts everywhere agreed, Rustich had all the makings of a first round pick. A big, 6-6 frame and power arm that fired mid-90s fastballs and high-80s sliders. What Rustich didn’t have, however, was any idea where the ball was going. He walked 5.4 per 9 innings in his career at UCLA and racked up 23 wild pitches in only 124 innings. Rustich red-shirted with a finger injury during his junior year and has since abandoned his split-finger in favor of a conventional changeup. Control problems were nowhere to be found in his debut, as he racked up 21 strikeouts and only 2 walks in 23 innings on way to a 3-0 record and 1.57 ERA between Kingsport and Brooklyn. The Mets are expected to give Rustich a chance to start this year with Savannah, although he was primarily a reliever in college.
Third Round
99. Eric Niesen, lhp, Wake Forest
Niesen took a major leap forward when he was moved to the bullpen midway through his junior season. His fastball jumped from 88-91 into the mid-90s. In relief, he showed a sharper, harder slider and his command was better. So what have the Mets done? Used him as a starter, of course. So far for St. Lucie this season, Niesen has a 6.28 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. He’s averaged less than four innings per start as a professional due to poor command. At this rate, Niesen is going to pitch himself right back into the bullpen, where he belongs anyway.
123. Stephen Clyne, rhp, Clemson
Clyne took over the closer’s duties for Clemson as 5th year senior (he missed a season with Tommy John surgery) and thrived in the role. He features a 92-94 fastball with sink and a great slider that gets swings and misses. But Clyne has been tattooed this year in St. Lucie, having already given up 18 runs in 8.1 IP.
Other picks of note
7th Rd. Lucas Duda, 1b, University of Southern California
He was a big disappointment at USC, but as a pro, Duda has done nothing but hit. He’s good defensively at 1st and has big time raw power, but at upper levels, his long swing may be exploited.
17th Rd. Brandon Efferson, rhp, Zachary HS (LA)
An undersized righty with a 90-91 mph fastball, Efferson started to receive hype when he was compared by some scouts to Roy Oswalt. The Mets didn’t meet his bonus demands and he chose to attend Southeastern Louisiana, where his ERA is currently over 6.
18th Rd. Michael Antonini, lhp, Georgia College
Prototypical “crafty” left-hander. Has an upper 80s fastball, curve, changeup, and cutter. He’s dominated the lower levels, with a 2.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 79 pro innings.
20th Rd. Dylan Owen, rhp, Francis Marion
Owen signed quickly and became the staff ace of the Brooklyn Cyclones and one of the best pitchers in the NY-Penn League last summer. He works with a 88-90 mph fastball, a good slider, and a changeup.
25th Rd. Cole Abbot, rhp, Weber HS (UT)
New to pitching, Abbot reached 93-94 mph before the draft last spring and showed a decent slider. Understandably raw, he was knocked around a bit in 10 GCL games. He has yet to pitch in 2008. (He might be on a Mormon mission. Anyone know for sure?)
Topics: AnyBodyButBengie, MLB Draft | No Comments »
It’s Not Collusion, Barry, It’s The Baggage
By JPSchmack | May 7, 2008
The MLB players’ association has opened an investigation into the free-agent market. The MLBPA has been investigating for several weeks what has taken place in free agency, in relation to Barry Bonds, Kenny Lofton and other players who have gone unsigned. It is something they have done in the past.
Jeff Borris, the agent for Bonds, said, “No team has made me an offer for any amount at any time since Barry became a free agent.”
Now despite the title, I’m going to simply ignore the baggage. From a pure talent standpoint, it might seem that a team would be willing to kick the tires on a player with incredible OBP and power to hit more home runs than anyone, ever. Clearly a team interested would have to be a veteran, contending team with a need. This would preclude: KC, MIN, PIT, STL, CIN, FLA, WAS, TB, TOR, BAL and most importantly, SF and OAK.
Leaving 18 teams who might consider him. Of those teams many simply do not have the need by virtue of the fact that they have either:
a) an incumbant at that position who is clearly a starter in LF in the case of NL teams.
b) a tandem of LF/DH who are also firmly entrenched, including one left hander in the case of AL teams.
Philly (Pat Burrell), Colorado (Holliday), Chicago (Soriano), Milwaukee (Braun), Arizona (Byrnes), Houston (Lee), Los Angeles (Either); Boston (Manny and Ortiz), Chicago (Quentin and Thome), the Yankees (Matsui and Damon), Anaheim (Anderson and Vlad/Hunter/Matthews) would limit potential Bonds suitors to seven teams: NYM, ATL, SD, CLE, DET, SEA, TEX.
Of those seven, five are in the bottom nine in OPS by a LF. Counting down from “least-likely to be interested…”
San Diego (#26 OPS by LF) has offensive problems in LF (and the OF in general). However, much of that is due to ballpark anyhow. The ballpark is a big factor for them, considering it’s one of the largest in the game. Edmonds and Giles have limited range, and since they are 9th in doubles allowed and sixth in doubles allowed already, Bonds in LF would not be beneficial to their defense. Considering they are behind Colorado and Arizona (plus LA) in the division; its unlikely they seriously consider Bonds before the All-Star break.
Atlanta (#22 OPS by LF) could conceivably platoon Bonds and Matt Diaz. However, they appear content to keep payroll to a minimum, as they have for the last five years, and play youngsters. They haven’t paid for a free agent (aside from Glavine’s return) in quite some time. Considering they were widely picked to finish third in the NL East, it’s easy to see why the Braves would only have considered Bonds if he were still looking for a job in mid-summer and they found themselves in contention. However, they now have massive rotation issues with Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine and Hampton all missing time, so their money is better spent elsewhere.
Cleveland (#23 OPS by LF) has no DH opening, between Hafner (LHB) and Garko at 1B/DH; Victor Martinez (S) and Kelly Shoppach at C/DH. Their starting LF (Dellucci) is a lefty, as is Shin-Soo Choo (on the DL). With four of their top offensive players being switch-hitters or LHB, they are probably too left-handed to consider Bonds. Plus there is the money factor.
Texas (#15th in OPS by LF) doesn’t have a huge need. Four of their healthy OFs are left-handed, including both LF: (Catalonotto and David Murphy, both with OPS over .775). They also have Broussard (LH) and Blalock (LH) to DH as well. Throw in the fact that they are already in 8 games back of first, and they really have no reason to get Bonds.
The Mets (#25 OPS by LF) have played exactly three games with their starting LF this season; and with Moises Alou turning in an above average .860 OPS vs righties, Bonds may not be needed. The other issue for the Mets, is that Bonds would make them extremely left-handed. Bonds couldn’t hit third or fourth for the Mets, because they’d need to replace him late for defense (and they used Endy Chavez, a LHB, to replace a 42-year old Alou late in games last season).
The current 4-8 of the Mets features: Beltran (S), Delgado (L), Bonds (L), Church (L), Schneider (L), plus Alou (R) who’d hit the bench for Bonds. That’s four-straight LHB. The only possible configuration for the Mets would be: Reyes (S) - Church (L) - Beltran (S) - Wright (R) - Delgado (L) - Bonds (L)/Alou (R) - Schneider (L) - Castillo (S).
But this would also result in using three LF in a game, Bonds to start, Alou as a situational hitter, and Chavez in a double-switch for defense.
Plus, the addition of Johan Santana’s $20 contract and the rest of the Mets high payroll makes Bonds’ a frivilous expenditure. Especially considering the Mets haven’t seen their offense intact with a healthy Alou to know if they truly have a need.
Realistically, the two teams most often discussed with Bonds are Seattle and Detroit. The AP story from which I stole the first two paragraphs specifically mentioned them as “a classic situation for Bonds — the need for a left-handed hitter and an opening at designated hitter.”
Yet, Seattle is 9th in OPS by LF early in 2008 with the LH hitting Raul Ibanez leading the team in OPS.
The Mariners have a clear need for a power-bat vs RHP (.655 OPS vs RHP as a team). And LH DH candidate Brad Wilkerson is OPSing .663 vs RHP.
Switch-hitting DH Jose Vidro is struggling against everyone and Bonds would look fine in his role. However, while Vidro’s production is opening the door for Bonds, Vidro’s contract is probably what kept the Mariners away: Vidro makes $8.5 million; limiting the teams’ ability to add Bonds.
And Detroit’s DH spot is firmly entrenched by Gary Sheffield. He’s been hampered by injuries and while struggling vs LHP, has done okay with a .732 OPS vs RHP. Detroit expects him to recover. They also have Brandon Inge without a position now because Carlos Guillen is now a 1B/DH as well.
Many point to Jacque Jones’ release as a sign they need a LF, however, due to the injury to start the season to CF Curtis Granderson, they Tigers have been using their LF candidates in CF (Inge, Thames, Ryan Raburn). The Tigers are still the most-likely destination; but will probably give Inge every chance to win the job (and for Sheffield to regain his form) before looking to Bonds.
The other massive factor in all this is Bonds’ durability. Simply mentioning the fact that at age 44, and playing only 842 innings of defense last season eliminates him as a candidate for any team with no need of a DH could have saved a lot of time. Considering most teams would consider Bonds capable of playing at most a half-season, there’s absolutely zero need to contact Bonds before June.
If you’re Seattle, you don’t anticipate Vidro’s OPS being under .600. With Ibanez in LF and Vidro making $8.5, there’s no need to contact Bonds in the off-season. If the team is contending at mid-season and Vidro is struggling vs RHP, then you add him for the stretch.
If you’re Detroit, you’re expected to score oodles of runs with Granderson-Rentaria-Cabrera-Ordonez-Sheffield-Guillen-Polanco-Rodriguez-Jones as your pre-season lineup. If anything, Detroit would need to upgrade speedsters and find a second leadoff man to hit ninth, not a power-bat in the middle with their 3-7. They were widely regarded to dominate half the AL and easily make the playoffs.
For virtually all of baseball, Bonds was ALWAYS only a late-season possibility. If not for position surplus and economic reasons, then for the simple fact that most teams would not want to deal with the media circus which surrounds Bonds unless he was absolutely necessary. And that need would not be known until mid-season.
From a Mets standpoint: You can read the Refugees thoughts on adding Bonds HERE
Personally, I think the Mets should consider offering Bonds a chance to stay in shape in New Orleans, solely to boost attendance in New Orleans. The current Zephyr outfield consists of:
Jesus Feliciano (starting CF; 28 years old); Chris Aguila (Marlins castaway, 29 years old); Valentino Pascucci (29 year-old AAA-lifer signed because he’s from Baton Rouge and hits HR); Victor Mendez (RF/LF; 27 years old); and Brady Clark (who passed waivers, pondered retirement and was 50-50 getting on the plane from his hometown of Portland to continue his career).
Plus the possibility of the DH exists in the PCL, the Zephyrs employed a DH last season vs AL minor league teams at home on multiple occasions; however it seemed exclusively limited to specific series (possibly involving rehabbing players).
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Jimmy Rollins Placed on Disabled List
By Dan | April 20, 2008
Shortstop Jimmy Rollins (left ankle sprain) and outfielder Chris Snelling (left knee inflammation) were placed on the 15-day disabled list, the Phillies announced today. Snelling is backdated to April 17. To fill their spots on the 25-man roster, infielder Brad Harman was recalled from Double-A Reading and outfielder T.J. Bohn was recalled from Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
Source: MLB.com
Wow, huge loss for the Phillies. Because Rollins has pinch hit several times in the past week, they are also not able to backdate his stay on the disabled list.
Topics: HireDePodesta, News | No Comments »
Citi Field Update 4/12/08
By Dan M. | April 12, 2008
It’s been an eventful first two weeks of the season for the Mets, and it’s also been an eventful two weeks at Citi Field. You can see the latest pictures on the Refugees forum and Webshots.
On Wednesday, April 9th, the “topping off” ceremony was held at Citi Field. The ceremony, signaling the completion of steel work, was marked by construction workers signing a beam and attaching a tree to it before it was lifted into place. This milestone marks the completion of structural work at Citi Field (with the exception of some of the frame for the center field scoreboard, which will be completed soon). With the structural work essentially complete, most of the remaining work will be done on the interior of the ballpark.
Over the past weeks, installation of seats has begun on the promenade level, while on the concourse level, the seating area continues to be extended to full length.
Exterior work also continues, with window panes being installed inside the arched brick facade.
Check back in two weeks for the next Citi Field update.
Topics: Citi Field, nymdan | No Comments »
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