Pedro Injury Update: Strained Left Hammy
By Dan | April 1, 2008
According to Gary Cohen on the SNY Broadcast, the preliminary word on Pedro’s injury is a strained left hamstring. He is day-to-day, but it’s unlikely Pedro will be unable to avoid the disabled list. Expect more word on the injury tomorrow after an MRI is conducted.
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Pelfrey 5th Starter
By Dan | March 30, 2008
According to Bart Hubbuch of the NY Post, the Mets have named Pelfrey the 5th starter. He will make his first start against the Braves on Saturday. El Duque will start the season on the DL, and stay in Port St. Lucie to continue his rehab.
(Source)
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Smith and Clark Make Team
By Dan | March 30, 2008
According to various sources on the internet, both Joe Smith and Brady Clark have made the 25-man roster. However, there’s still no word on who will be the Mets’ 5th starter.
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Citi Field Update 3/29/08
By Dan M. | March 29, 2008
Here is this week’s Citi Field update. As always, you can see the latest pictures on the Refugees forum and Webshots.
With only ten days until the Mets home opener, most of the visible changes over the past two weeks have been related to infrastructure work. Work continues at a rapid pace on the new subway entrance/exit as well as the nearby MTA information booth. The parking lot on the Roosevelt Avenue side of Citi Field has been fully repaved.
As for the park itself, installation of the precast facade is now complete with the exception of a small area on the first base side where a construction elevator is attached.
The first supports for the center field scoreboard are now in place. Once the scoreboard supports are complete, Citi Field’s structural steel will be 100% completed.
With the structure almost completely in place, the majority of the work being done is happening inside the ballpark, where the front rows of precast risers for the concourse level seating will soon be put into place. The interior progress can be seen in islandxtreme26’s photos that were linked to the other day.
Also, according to a construction worker who posts on Baseball Fever, preparation work has started for the promenade level (upper deck) seating, and the seats themselves will begin to be installed soon, possibly as early as Thursday.
Make sure to visit the Refugees forum or Webshots for pictures of Citi Field from inside Shea a few hours after the conclusion of the home opener, and check back here soon for the next Citi Field update.
Topics: Citi Field, nymdan | No Comments »
New Citi Field interior pictures
By Dan M. | March 26, 2008
Chris S., aka islandxtreme26, has taken another great batch of pictures taken inside Citi Field.
Besides giving us a rare view of the interior work, Chris took some nice pictures of the work going on outside of the stadium, as workers get the the new subway exit and the parking lots ready for Opening Day.
You can see the pictures here.
Topics: Citi Field, nymdan | 1 Comment »
Building a Bullpen, Part III
By Jason E | March 24, 2008
A successful bullpen depends not only on its pitchers, but also on the manager using them effectively. Willie Randolph has drawn criticism for his bullpen management, as has every other major league manager. In part three of our series on the bullpen, we focus on Randolph and whether the criticism is justified.
Bullpen management boils down to two important tasks. First, a manager must put each of his relievers in the best position to succeed. To do so, he must make use of batter-pitcher history, the splits of both pitcher and hitter, and gut instinct. But to keep pitchers effective, the manager must also keep them fresh. The success of managers in these aspects is extremely difficult to quantify. Last year, Billy Wagner’s ERA was two runs higher in the second half than in the first. Was he tired or simply due to regress? If he was worn down, was there anything Willie Randolph could have done to prevent that? Any answer to these questions is entirely conjecture, as the only evidence that can be offered is anecdotal.
One thing we can examine is how well Randolph has made use of platoon splits. It is a matter of simple common sense that Pedro Feliciano should face a greater percentage of left-handed batters than Joe Smith does. Feliciano held lefties to a .483 OPS last year, while Smith was clobbered to the tune of an .853 OPS. As expected, Feliciano faced 41% lefties and Smith only 28%. Plotted, it looks like this:
Feliciano is conveniently on the far left, Smith on the far right. That’s all the x-axis means, better against lefties on the left, better against righties on the right.
So what if we looked at the same thing for every significant reliever in Randolph’s tenure?
Dots all over the place.
The far left dot is Scott Schoeneweis in 2007 and the far right dot is Braden Looper in 2005. What we’d expect here is a downward trend moving from left to right; that is, pitchers like Schoeneweis facing a high percentage of left-handed batters and Looper facing a much lower percentage.
Obviously, that is not the case. In fact, there’s essentially no correlation between these two variables for Mets relievers from 2005-2007. It’s actually trending upward slightly. Does this mean Willie is a terrible manager? Well, maybe, but consider that opposing managers aren’t going to send many lefties up there against Billy Wagner. We need some context. So here’s the trend line taken from the above chart of Randolph’s bullpen use compared to all of baseball last season.
As you can see, other managers generally obtain favorable matchups for their relievers while Randolph appears to do the opposite. Where they particularly outshine Randolph is in the use of lefty specialists. (Note the upward curve of the yellow line on the far left.) We shouldn’t be too harsh on Willie here, his sample size of left-handed specialists is all of… 1. Scott Schoeneweis in 2007. Still, Schoeneweis faced only 40.8% left-handed batters, meaning that in 6 out of 10 at-bats, he was likely to get clobbered.
Even though it’s over three years, there’s still not much of a sample for Randolph. So can we conclude anything? I think we can.
Conclusions
The numbers back up something a lot of Mets fans probably noticed. In a few cases, Willie has left relievers in roles that it had long been obvious they weren’t suited for. For most of last season, he insisted Schoeneweis could get both lefties and righties out. In 2005, he left Braden Looper in the closer’s role. The problem with that wasn’t so much that Looper was bad, it was that he was brought in for the 9th inning regardless of who was coming to bat for the other team. Also, in the ninth opposing managers will pinch-hit more liberally, meaning that a pitcher’s splits get exploited the most when you put them in the closer’s role. Looper happened to have the most extreme splits on the team and the results were ugly.
Aside from those two examples, Randolph has done fine putting his relievers in a position to succeed. The problem is that those two cases were so utterly mismanaged that they make his overall results, seen in the graph, appear as if he’s paying no attention to Left/Right splits whatsoever.
As we noted in the beginning, there is a lot to keeping pitchers effective that we cannot measure. But what we can measure indicates that Randolph has made a few mistakes. Usually this involves putting too much trust in one of his pitchers to get the job done even when the situation makes that unlikely. In terms of what all this means for the 2008 bullpen, we’ll assume he’s learned his lesson on Schoeneweis (fingers crossed). The other pitcher who may become a problem is Jorge Sosa. Sosa has been destroyed by left-handed batters throughout his career and last year was no exception. However, he did come through against lefties in a few critical spots last season. We fear this may lead Randolph to put the ball in his hands again, with disastrous results.
In the next part of our bullpen series, we will continue to scrutinize Willie Randolph’s bullpen management with a look at whether he’s leveraging his relievers properly.
Topics: AnyBodyButBengie, Bullpen | 1 Comment »
ESPN: Tigers sign Miguel Cabrera to 8-year Deal
By Dan | March 22, 2008
According to ESPNdeportes, the Detroit Tigers are set to sign Miguel Cabrera to an 8-year, $153 million dollar deal. Cabrera was eligible for arbitration in 2009, and could become a free agent after the season.
(Source)
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Building a Bullpen, Part II
By Dan | March 22, 2008
In Part I, we looked at the locks for the Mets’ pen: Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, and Schoeneweis. In Part II, we will go over the remaining field of contenders, including Duaner Sanchez, Matt Wise, and Jorge Sosa, for the final spots. Assuming the Mets use 7 relievers as they have in the past, that leaves 3 spots left to fill the back end of the pen.
Duaner Sanchez
Statistics
2007: Did Not Pitch (Injured)
2006: 55.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 44 SO, 24 BB, 3 HR
Splits: Vs. Left: .273/.325/.425, Vs. Right: .179/.255/.226
Stuff: Sanchez’s fastball sits in the 92-93 MPH range, but it’s not known how hard he will throw now after several surgeries on his shoulder. He also features a slider which he throws mostly against righties, and a changeup which is thrown mostly against lefties. He will also occasionally mix in a curveball.
Chance of Making Pen: 75%. It’s possible Sanchez may start the season on the disabled list as he recovers from his injuries, but he will be given every chance to succeed after that. The Mets are said to be very pleased with his work ethic this Spring Training. It’s not likely his velocity will ever return to the level of 2006, but if he can just reach 89-90 MPH consistently, it’s possible Sanchez could still be effective.
Matt Wise
Statistics
2007: 53.7 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 17 BB, 43 SO, 5 HR
2006: 44.3 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 14 BB, 27 SO, 6 HR
Splits: Vs. Left: .260/.341/.425, Vs. Right: .298/.333/.440
Stuff: Wise, like Heilman, is mostly a fastball/change up guy. His fastball mostly sits in the 86-88 MPH range, and he will mix in his changeup to keep hitters off balance. He throws his changeup even more than his fastball against lefties.
Chance of Making Pen: 90%. Barring Sanchez proving to the Mets that he can pitch regularly, it’s likely Wise will break camp with the team. Wise has been masterful this spring, and while Spring Training is relatively meaningless, he has certainly upped his stock in the eyes of the Mets’ brass.
Jorge Sosa
Statistics:
2007: 112.7 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 41 BB, 69 SO, 10 HR
2006: 118.0 IP, 5.42 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 40 BB, 75 SO, 30 HR
Splits: Vs. Left: .326/.400/.538, Vs. Right: .202/.253/.296
Stuff: Sosa features a 90-91 MPH fastball with little movement, and an 85 MPH slider that is without question his best pitch. He also mixed in a changeup more often in 2007 in an attempt to be more effective against lefties, but looking at his numbers, it wasn’t very successful.
Chance of Making Team: 90%. Sosa is likely to break camp with the team, as the Mets rewarded him with a $2 million dollar contract earlier in the offseason. If used properly by Willie, Sosa could be a big weapon for the Mets against right handers.
Steven Register
Statistics
2007: (AA) 58 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 16 BB, 48 SO, 3 HR
Splits: Vs. Left: .269/.307/.366, Vs. Right: .286/.336/.421
Stuff: Register has a 91-93 MPH fastball with decent sink, and a pretty average slider.
Chance of Making Team: 50%. Register must be on the 25-man roster for the entire season, or he will have to be offered back to the Rockies. It’s possible the Mets could take Register up with them to start the year, as they won’t need a 5th starter until Mid-April. This would allow them to get a better look at him as they decide if it’s worth using a roster spot for him.
Joe Smith
Statistics
2007: 44.3 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 21 BB, 45 SO, 3 HR
Splits: Vs. Left: .298/.411/.447, Vs. Right: .266/.361/.359
Stuff: Using a sidearm delivery, Smith’s fastball sits at 87-89 MPH with nice movement. He also throws a nasty 79 MPH slider that dives out of the strike zone against right-handers. Like most pitchers with his type of delivery, Smith will likely never be that effective against lefties.
Chance of Making Team: 25%. Since his run in early 2006 as one of the Mets’ best relievers, Smith’s stock has fallen in the organization. He will likely have to start the year out in AAA, and hope for his chance later in the year.
Ruddy Lugo
Statistics
2007: 48.3 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 37 BB, 34 SO, 3 HR
2006: 85.0 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 37 BB, 48 SO, 4 HR
Splits: Vs. Left: .244/.388/.462, Vs. Right: .274/.386/.377
Stuff: For a reliever, Lugo features a surprising amount of pitches. His fastball sits in the 90-91 MPH ranger, and he will also mix in a slider, changeup, and curveball. Lugo struggled with his control in 2007, but he was quite effective for the Devil Rays in 2006.
Chance of Making Team: 0%. Lugo has already been sent to minor league camp. If any relievers struggle or get injured early on, it’s likely Lugo will be one of the first options on line.
That does it for the contenders. In Part III of our look at building a bullpen, Jason E. will take over with a look at Willie’s controversial bullpen usage.
Topics: Bullpen, HireDePodesta | No Comments »
Building a Bullpen, Part I
By Dan | March 16, 2008
If you asked any Mets fan why the team collapsed in 2007, one of the first reasons you will hear is the bullpen, and specifically, Guillermo Mota. Overall, the Mets’ bullpen wasn’t particularly terrible in 2007, finishing 8th in the NL in reliever ERA at 3.99. Willie Randolph could definitely not be blamed for overworking the pen either, as the Mets’ relievers only threw 511 innings, good for 10th in the NL. However, Randolph’s use of Mota was almost inexcusable, as he posted a 5.76 ERA in 59 innings pitched. Mota, though, is gone now, and there are plenty of new faces to help alleviate the Mets’ bullpen woes.
First off, let’s start with the locks for the pen. Wagner, Heilman, and Feliciano are virtual locks for the pen, barring injury. Scott Schoeneweis has been involved in recent trade rumors, but he still has $6 million left on his 3-year deal, and is unlikely to go anywhere. Assuming he’s not traded for outfield help, he’s a lock too.
Locks
Billy Wagner
Statistics
2007: 68.3 IP, 2.63 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 80 SO, 22 BB, 6 HR
2006: 72.3 IP, 2.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 94 SO, 21 BB, 7 HR
Splits: Vs. Left: .241/.328/.370, Vs. Right: .209/.268/.318
Stuff: Wagner throws his 95-97 MPH fastball about 70% of the time, and his 85 MPH slider the rest of the time. He’s also working on adding a curveball and changeup to his repertoire, but he likely won’t throw either all that much in 2008.
Chance of Making Pen: 100%. Wagner is the Mets’ closer.
Aaron Heilman
Statistics
2007: 86.0 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 63 SO, 20 BB, 8 HR
2006: 87.0 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 73 SO, 28 BB, 8HR
Splits: Vs. Left: .234/.302/.435, Vs. Right: .218/.263/.305
Stuff: Heilman works off his 91-93 MPH Fastball, which bores in on righthanders. His 83 MPH changeup is considered one of the best on the team, and allows Heilman to work effectively against lefthanders.
Chance of Making Pen: 100%. Barring a big return from Duaner Sanchez, Heilman is Wagner’s main set-up man.
Pedro Feliciano
Statistics
2007: 64.0 IP, 3.09 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 61 SO, 31 BB, 3 HR
2006: 60.03 IP, 2.09 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 54 SO, 20 BB, 4 HR
Splits: Vs. Left: .168/.273/.211, Vs. Right: .221/.325/.371
Stuff: Feliciano mostly works off his 86 MPH Fastball/75 MPH slider combination. He will also occasionally mix in a curveball against lefties and changeup against righties.
Chance of Making Pen: 100%. Feliciano is the unsung hero of the Mets bullpen, often pitching in bigger situations than Heilman.
Scott Schoeneweis
Statistics
2007 Stats: 59 IP, 5.03 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 41 SO, 28 BB, 8 HR
2006 Stats: 51.7 IP, 4.88 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 29 SO, 24 BB, 4 HR
Splits: Vs. Left: .204/.308/.247, Vs. Right: .316/.390/.574
Stuff: Schoeneweis is another mostly fastball/slider guy. His 89-91 MPH fastball is thrown about 75% of the time, with his slider mixed in the rest.
Chance of Making Pen: 100%. As his splits would indicate, Schoeneweis should mostly be used as a LOOGY. Apparently Willie Randolph did not get the memo, as he repeatedly set up Schoeneweis to fail by forcing him to face right-handers. He also battled against a torn tendon in his right knee, an injury he sustained in 2005 after slipping on a wet field before a game against the A’s. If Willie uses Schoeneweis correctly this year, expect a bounce-back year from him.
That wraps up the locks for the bullpen in 2008. In Part II, we’ll take a look at the main contenders to fill the back-end of the pen. In Part III, we’ll take a look at Willie Randolph’s much-criticized use of the bullpen.
(All data courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Credit to Fan Graphs, Bill James Online, and From Small Ball to Long Ball’s excellent player pages for assistance in compiling the pitcher’s stuff.)
Topics: Bullpen, HireDePodesta | 1 Comment »
Citi Field Update 3/15/08
By Dan M. | March 15, 2008
Here is this week’s Citi Field update. Much work has been done over the past two weeks, not only on the ballpark but also on getting the surrounding area ready for fans to return to Shea in just a few weeks. You can see the latest pictures on the Refugees forum and Webshots.
Installation of the arched brick facade around the Jackie Robinson Rotunda is now nearing completion. With the exception of a small area where a construction elevator is attached, the ballpark’s facade should be completely in place by Opening Day.
Installation of the stadium’s light towers and the lights themselves has also been continuing at a rapid pace. The left field light towers have been put into place over the past two weeks. The steel supports for the right field scoreboard are also now in place, along with the lights atop the scoreboard. Aside from one strip of lights that will be installed in right field within the next few days, all of Citi Field’s lighting is now in place.
Behind left field, exterior work continues, with windows and aluminum louvers being installed. Near the left field gate, bricks are being layed on the exterior of the stair/elevator tower.
Much infrastructure work has also been completed over the past two weeks. Work continues on the new subway entrance/exit, and in the re-paved section of Shea’s parking lot, parking spots have been painted on the asphault. Workers are currently paving the parking lot between Citi Field and Roosevelt Avenue, and a new, concrete sidewalk is now in place along Roosevelt Avenue, replacing the previous asphault.
Between Shea Stadium and Northern Boulevard, the traffic circle has been dug up, with traffic signals now in place. Also, repair work will be done in the coming months on the Passerelle Bridge, the boardwalk between Flushing Meadows Park and Shea Stadium.
That’s it for this week. Check back in two weeks for the next Citi Field update.
For those of you keeping up with the progress on the ballpark being built across town, check out these pictures I took in the Bronx last weekend. The Yankees have also released many new renderings of their new stadium, which you can see here.
Topics: Citi Field, nymdan | No Comments »
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