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Old 07-26-2017, 05:01 PM   #21
cmcm750203
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Flexen has only recently broke out.

He was okay up until this year where he found an uptick in velocity, more movement, and better command.
I feel like there were quite a few on the board high on Flexen for a long time. Like a couple of years now.
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Old 07-26-2017, 06:30 PM   #22
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Miss year in and year out? We've had 3 recent first round picks on our roster at some points during this season. One of them is our best hitter.
we also drafted and traded michael fulmer.
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Old 07-26-2017, 07:59 PM   #23
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a lot of teams miss on 1st round picks. lets stop the nonsense. plawecki was the 35th pick. you know how many 35th picks never make the majors?
https://www.baseball-reference.com/d...rom_type_unk=0

#35 pick WAR leaders
01. Johnny Damon OF (1992): 56.0
02. Mark Langston LHP (1981): 50.7
03. Aaron Rowand OF (1998): 20.8
04. Jason Marquis RHP (1996): 8.5
05. Mark Bellhorn SS (1995): 8.0
06. Brian Hunter OF (1989): 7.4
07. Mike Schooler RHP (1985): 4.1
08. Julio Borbon OF (2007): 1.8
09. Cesar Ramos LHP (2005): 1.3
10. Mickey Brantley OF (1983): 0.9
11. Kevin Plawecki C (2012): 0.7
11. J.D. Martin RHP (2001): 0.7
13. Terry Jorgensen OF (1987): 0.3
14. Jim Minshall RHP (1966): 0.2
15. Jeremy Brown C (2002): 0.1
16. Matt Davidson 3B (2009): 0.0
16. Matt Fox RHP (2004): 0.0
16. Todd Dunn OF (1993): 0.0
16. Gary Hargis INF (1974): 0.0
16. Dennis DeBarr LHP (1971): 0.0
21. Tyrell Godwin OF (2000): -0.1
22. Jim Weaver OF (1980): -0.3
23. Stan Spencer RHP (1990): -0.5
24. Jeff Ware RHP (1991): -0.7
25. Matt Alexander 3B (1968): -0.8
26. Luis Atilano RHP (2003): -0.9
27. Matt Kinzer RHP (1984): -1.5

Never Made Majors
01. Dick Horton C (1965)
02. Robert Ware RHP (1967)
03. Peter Helt LHP (1969)
04. Ron Kinner C (1970)
05. George Lusic RHP (1972)
06. Edward McMahon SS (1973)
07. Mitch Lukevics RHP (1975)
08. Thomas Hawk RHP (1976)
09. Linvel Mosby RHP (1977)
10. Eddie Hook RHP (1978)
11. Gary Glanz RHP (1979)
12. Jim Opie 3B (1982)
13. Wynn Beck C (1988)
14. Sean Johnston LHP (1994)
15. Mark Fischer OF (1997)
16. Brian West RHP (1999)
17. Kyler Burke OF (2006)
18. Evan Frederickson LHP (2008)

Currently/recently in minors
Matt Lipka SS (2010)
Jacob Anderson OF (2011)
Matt Krook LHP (2013)
Forrest Wall 2B (2014)
Kyle Funkhouser RHP (2015)
Taylor Trammell OF (2016)
Brent Rooker OF (2017)

Last edited by Buddy Lembeck; 07-26-2017 at 08:03 PM.
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Old 07-26-2017, 08:16 PM   #24
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Haha of course Buddy has an answer and LOL at Plaw being #11.
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Old 07-27-2017, 08:32 AM   #25
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I think Acuna should be in the convo for #1. I think he gets dinged for missing most of last season and not being a hyped July 2nd signing
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Old 07-27-2017, 10:08 AM   #26
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I think Acuna should be in the convo for #1. I think he gets dinged for missing most of last season and not being a hyped July 2nd signing
of course you'd think that.

He still strikes out nearly a third of his AB's.
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Old 07-27-2017, 10:23 AM   #27
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Hate the Braves but Acuna is a fucking beast. K's are high (25% of his PA this year), but he's still only 19 and has climbed from A to AAA in one season. Plus power and speed. He's definitely in the discussion for #1 with Moncada/Rosario/Devers all leaving lists soon.
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Old 07-27-2017, 11:35 AM   #28
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of course you'd think that.

He still strikes out nearly a third of his AB's.
No he doesn't. He's dropped his K % as he moved up. He's also 19, his strikeout rate isn't alarming at all.

I thought this thread was on the main board and clicked on it by accident.
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Old 07-27-2017, 12:03 PM   #29
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I did the math in my head, never my strong suit! this year he's struck out 28% (108 K's in 388 AB's)

the boy is good. I'm just trying to hate on him.
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Old 07-27-2017, 12:16 PM   #30
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It's been coming down as the season progresses despite promotions. I think missing most of last year led to that early flukeish k rate in A+.

Have you guys noticed how aggressivey the Braves have been promoting prospects? Two more bumped up today. It's really bizarre, hasn't backfired yet. I think they want to have the top 5 youngest players at each level or something.
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Old 07-27-2017, 12:40 PM   #31
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It's been coming down as the season progresses despite promotions. I think missing most of last year led to that early flukeish k rate in A+.

Have you guys noticed how aggressivey the Braves have been promoting prospects? Two more bumped up today. It's really bizarre, hasn't backfired yet. I think they want to have the top 5 youngest players at each level or something.
Not that it has backfired, but Allard skipping A+ has affected his performance quite a bit. K's down, BB up, giving up more H and HR.

He'll figure it out, but it probably would've been a good call to at least start him at High-A in April.
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Old 07-27-2017, 01:06 PM   #32
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I just hope 2 of the newest Louisiana Lumberjaxx draft picks, Barves draft picks Drew Waters & Freddy Tarnok, fair well.

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Old 07-28-2017, 12:42 AM   #33
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Miss year in and year out? We've had 3 recent first round picks on our roster at some points during this season. One of them is our best hitter.
Wtf, Ur gonna use Nimmo and Chechini as your argument? Okay.

2011 Nimmo/Fulmer
2012 Chechini/Plawecki
2013 Smith
2014 Conforto
2015 Cuddyer
2016 Dunn/Kay


At this moment Smith, Fulmer and Conforto are the only guys with trade value. Nimmo Plawicki and Chechini look like backups right now. Kay is hurt. Dunn hasnt had a good start to his career. Obviously it's too soon for those two or the this year's pick, but our system isn't strong because of this shit right here.
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Old 07-28-2017, 08:43 AM   #34
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Wtf, Ur gonna use Nimmo and Chechini as your argument? Okay.

2011 Nimmo/Fulmer
2012 Chechini/Plawecki
2013 Smith
2014 Conforto
2015 Cuddyer
2016 Dunn/Kay


At this moment Smith, Fulmer and Conforto are the only guys with trade value. Nimmo Plawicki and Chechini look like backups right now. Kay is hurt. Dunn hasnt had a good start to his career. Obviously it's too soon for those two or the this year's pick, but our system isn't strong because of this shit right here.
the mets system isn't strong because it's hard to maintain a top 5 farm system(which they recently had) after graduating a good portion of it.

the red sox and cubs also recently had great farms. what happened to them? players graduated. they made trades.

does buddy need to give you a new history lesson on the history of picks that fall between 10-20?
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Old 07-29-2017, 12:57 PM   #35
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the mets system isn't strong because it's hard to maintain a top 5 farm system(which they recently had) after graduating a good portion of it.

the red sox and cubs also recently had great farms. what happened to them? players graduated. they made trades.

does buddy need to give you a new history lesson on the history of picks that fall between 10-20?
Yeah the Cubs won a world series and will be a contending team for the next 5 years. The red Sox got Kimbel/Sale The best outfield in baseball, a 22 year old SS who can hit and field with some of the best of them and a 3B who projects to be another player they can add to one of the best young cores in baseball.

What have the Mets done with that top 5 system?

And I won't use the Dodgers because they're in a different realm financially, but I will use the Nats as an example for how it can be done. They have graduated/Traded players and still have an elite farm system. They can trade for basically anyone in baseball if they wanted to, and it's mostly because they drafted well.

You're missing my point. I know the draft is a crap shoot. It doesn't mean that teams get a pass. So Buddy wouldn't be telling me new information. I'm explaining why we have a farm system that's less than great. It's because we haven't drafted particularly well. Are you honestly saying that statement is wrong??
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Old 07-29-2017, 05:44 PM   #36
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Yeah the Cubs won a world series and will be a contending team for the next 5 years. The red Sox got Kimbel/Sale The best outfield in baseball, a 22 year old SS who can hit and field with some of the best of them and a 3B who projects to be another player they can add to one of the best young cores in baseball.

What have the Mets done with that top 5 system?

And I won't use the Dodgers because they're in a different realm financially, but I will use the Nats as an example for how it can be done. They have graduated/Traded players and still have an elite farm system. They can trade for basically anyone in baseball if they wanted to, and it's mostly because they drafted well.

You're missing my point. I know the draft is a crap shoot. It doesn't mean that teams get a pass. So Buddy wouldn't be telling me new information. I'm explaining why we have a farm system that's less than great. It's because we haven't drafted particularly well. Are you honestly saying that statement is wrong??
You have made some good points to consider, but it isn't exactly an apples to apples situation against teams like the Cubs and Nats. Let's look at top #15 picks over the last decade.

Cubs first round top 15 picks:
2011: #9 (Baez)
2012: #6 (Almora)
2013: #2 (Bryant)
2014: #4 (Schwarber)
2015: #9 (Happ)
#1-#5: 2 picks
#6-#10: 3 picks
#11-#15: 0 picks
Top 10: 5 picks

Nationals first round top 15 picks:
2007: #6 (Detwiler)
2008: #9 (Crow)
2009: #1 (Strasburg)
2009: #10 (Storen)
2010: #1 (Harper)
2011: #6 (Rendon)
#1-#5: 2 picks
#6-#10: 4 picks
#11-#15: 0 picks
Top 10: 6 picks

Mets first round top 15 picks:
2010: #7 (Harvey)
2011: #13 (Nimmo)
2012: #12 (Cecchini)
2013: #11 (Dom)
2014: #10 (Conforto)
#1-#5: 0 picks
#6-#10: 2 picks
#11-#15: 3 picks
Top 10: 2 picks

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/s...picks-by-slot/

Chance to Find a Superior Player in the Draft
Code:
Date pick#1-5 pick#6-10 pick#11-15	
00-05	9	5	5
06-10	7	6	5
All	16	11	10
%	29%	20%	18%
Chance to Find a Bust in the Draft
Code:
Date pick#1-5 pick#6-10 pick#11-15
00-05	19	20	20
06-10	14	16	19	
All	33	36	39
%      60%	65%	71%

We've done very well with both of our most recent top #10 picks (Harvey and Conforto), and two of our top three #11-#15 picks have been ranked in the BA top #50 (Dom currently in the 2017 mid-year rankings right behind Clint Frazier, and Nimmo previously in 2015). Furthermore, one of our 2012 IFA signings is now #4 in the BA mid year rankings (Rosario), one of our 2015 IFA signings will be ranked soon enough if he keeps it up (Gimenez), and we just signed another very highly regarded IFA prospect (Mauricio). The Red Sox were able to land Sale because they were allowed to spend over $60M for Moncada, something we would never have the ability to do under the Wilpons. And the Cubs were able to land Wade Davis because they were able to spend $30M on Soler, again the kind of money the Mets would never spend in the international market.

Last edited by Buddy Lembeck; 07-29-2017 at 07:14 PM.
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Old 07-30-2017, 09:31 AM   #37
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You have made some good points to consider, but it isn't exactly an apples to apples situation against teams like the Cubs and Nats. Let's look at top #15 picks over the last decade.

Cubs first round top 15 picks:
2011: #9 (Baez)
2012: #6 (Almora)
2013: #2 (Bryant)
2014: #4 (Schwarber)
2015: #9 (Happ)
#1-#5: 2 picks
#6-#10: 3 picks
#11-#15: 0 picks
Top 10: 5 picks

Nationals first round top 15 picks:
2007: #6 (Detwiler)
2008: #9 (Crow)
2009: #1 (Strasburg)
2009: #10 (Storen)
2010: #1 (Harper)
2011: #6 (Rendon)
#1-#5: 2 picks
#6-#10: 4 picks
#11-#15: 0 picks
Top 10: 6 picks

Mets first round top 15 picks:
2010: #7 (Harvey)
2011: #13 (Nimmo)
2012: #12 (Cecchini)
2013: #11 (Dom)
2014: #10 (Conforto)
#1-#5: 0 picks
#6-#10: 2 picks
#11-#15: 3 picks
Top 10: 2 picks

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/s...picks-by-slot/

Chance to Find a Superior Player in the Draft
Code:
Date pick#1-5 pick#6-10 pick#11-15	
00-05	9	5	5
06-10	7	6	5
All	16	11	10
%	29%	20%	18%
Chance to Find a Bust in the Draft
Code:
Date pick#1-5 pick#6-10 pick#11-15
00-05	19	20	20
06-10	14	16	19	
All	33	36	39
%      60%	65%	71%

We've done very well with both of our most recent top #10 picks (Harvey and Conforto), and two of our top three #11-#15 picks have been ranked in the BA top #50 (Dom currently in the 2017 mid-year rankings right behind Clint Frazier, and Nimmo previously in 2015). Furthermore, one of our 2012 IFA signings is now #4 in the BA mid year rankings (Rosario), one of our 2015 IFA signings will be ranked soon enough if he keeps it up (Gimenez), and we just signed another very highly regarded IFA prospect (Mauricio). The Red Sox were able to land Sale because they were allowed to spend over $60M for Moncada, something we would never have the ability to do under the Wilpons. And the Cubs were able to land Wade Davis because they were able to spend $30M on Soler, again the kind of money the Mets would never spend in the international market.
If you wanna say top 10 picks, they've had more, but if u bump it up to top 15 it's about equal with picks. And the Sox and Cubs could've still gotten Sale and Davis without using Moncada and Soler. They were both deep enough to get the job done without using those specific guys.
.
I agree, it's not Apples to Apple because those organization's had multiple terrible years while we were middle of the pack because our philosophy is meaningful games in September as opposed to winning a championship.
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Old 07-30-2017, 05:19 PM   #38
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If you wanna say top 10 picks, they've had more, but if u bump it up to top 15 it's about equal with picks. And the Sox and Cubs could've still gotten Sale and Davis without using Moncada and Soler. They were both deep enough to get the job done without using those specific guys.
.
I agree, it's not Apples to Apple because those organization's had multiple terrible years while we were middle of the pack because our philosophy is meaningful games in September as opposed to winning a championship.
As noted, there is a marked difference between each pick range within the top 15. Just saying we had a smiliar number of top 15 picks means little. The percentage to find a bust in the draft goes up about 5% when you go from the 1-5 pick range and about 6% when you go from the 6-10 to 11-15 pick range. And there is about a 9% difference in finding a superior player in the draft from the 1-5 to the 6-10 pick range. And considering the Nats had two #1s and the Cubs had a #2 and a #4, while we've had #7 and #10 that disparity is even greater than both of those within the top 10.

Sure the Red Sox and Cubs could have pulled off those trades without ever signing Moncada or Soler. Just like we could have pulled off those trades without ever signing Moncada or Soler. Of course it would have been at the expense of guys like Conforto or Rosario. Just like the Red Sox would have had to part with someone like Betts or Benintendi instead.
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Old 07-30-2017, 06:06 PM   #39
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whether you want to admit it or not, the mets constructed a pretty great roster this year. the offense came through in both production and depth. but every single pitcher except deGrom got injured and/or sucked. this years offense with our excepted great pitching staff would've been a mid to high 90's win team.
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Old 07-30-2017, 06:43 PM   #40
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whether you want to admit it or not, the mets constructed a pretty great roster this year. the offense came through in both production and depth. but every single pitcher except deGrom got injured and/or sucked. this years offense with our excepted great pitching staff would've been a mid to high 90's win team.
I mean Thor getting hurt and Matz sucking are both fairly surprising, but most could have told you before the season started that Harvey and Wheeler might not be good and that Gsellman and Lugo might (or definitely would in Lugo's case) regress hard

We really miss Colon's presence in the rotation. Even if not re-signing him was a wise move, we should have gone after someone similar
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