BP Mets Top 10 Prospects

[Felix the Cat]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/p...-10-prospects/

The Top Ten:
Andres Gimenez, SS
Peter Alonso, 1B
Ronny Mauricio, SS
Shervyen Newton, IF
Mark Vientos, 3B
David Peterson, LHP
Franklyn Kilome, RHP
Thomas Szapucki, LHP
Anthony Kay, LHP
Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP

[Felix the Cat]

I want so bad for Alonso to be good but the continued trashing of his defense is troubling. Is it legit criticism from people who have seem him or just a case of piling on?

He’s still, generously, a work-in-progress with the glove at first base, although he ranges and throws well enough. We believe that he’s “playable bad” there instead of “needs to be traded to the American League,” but there are scouts who project the latter.

[WaitTillNextSeason]

definite piling on

I don't expect him to be good defensively but there's no such thing as a 1B who's a really good power hitter who's so bad at 1B defense that he "needs to be traded to the American league"

[Felix the Cat]

Originally Posted by WaitTillNextSeason

definite piling on

I don't expect him to be good defensively but there's no such thing as a 1B who's a really good power hitter who's so bad at 1B defense that he "needs to be traded to the American league"

The term "playable bad" is kind of hilarious though. Just hope it isn't truly accurate.

[Daft Punk]

I remember when Michael Conforto was supposed to be a bad to mediocre in LF.

[nexxt]

1. Andres Gimenez, SS
DOB: 9/4/1998
Height/Weight: 5’11” / 161 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed September 2014 by the New York Mets out of Venezuela for $1,000,000.
Previous Ranking(s): #1 (Org), #82 (Top 101)
2018 Stats: .282/.348/.432, 6 HR, 28 SB in 85 games at High-A St. Lucie; .277/.344/.358, 0 HR, 10 SB in 37 games at Double-A Binghamton

The Report: Gimenez showed up this spring in better shape, shed some baby fat, and added athleticism to his polished up-the-middle profile. The 19-year-old hit at both High-A and Double-A, and his plus hit tool projection backs up the statline. Gimenez has exceptional bat control, his path keeps the lumber in the zone a long time, and he can adjust in-swing to offspeed. He very well could have seasons where he hits .300. The power at present plays mostly gap-to-gap. The raw is 40 at present, potentially average at physical maturity if he adds good weight to his frame. He has high-end 6 speed and is a smart, aggressive baserunner who could be good for 30 steals a season.

The plus speed plays in the field as well, giving Gimenez above-average range that plays up further due to a good first step. While we previously had concerns about him sticking at the 6, his defense has improved and he checks every box for a potential plus shortstop—good instincts, hands, and actions; smooth around the bag; plus throwing arm. The lack of power projection and his occasional over aggression against offspeed limits the ceiling a bit, but he’s as good a bet as any prospect in baseball to have an eight-year major league career of some variety.

The Role:

OFP 60—First-division shortstop, occasional all-star

Likely 55—Above-average everyday shortstop

The Risks: Low. While the profile lacks superstar upside at present, Gimenez inherits the “safe middle infield prospect” mantle from predecessors Willy Adames and Ozzie Albies. He doesn’t have the power upside they’ve shown, but he’s a plus athlete with a good hit tool. If you want to bet on a “high-floor” profile at the 6, that’s the one.

Major league ETA: A September 2019 call-up, but he might be ready before then.

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: In some ways, this is a test to see if we’ve learned anything from the army of smaller, hit-tool-first prospects who have reached higher upsides than we would have ever comfortably projected. Gimenez has everything you want, except for the power, but if he can grow into even 15-homer pop, we’re looking at someone who could approximate Jean Segura’s fantasy value and maintain top-10 shortstop status even if he never really competes with the Lindors or Machados of the world.

2. Peter Alonso, 1B
DOB: 12/7/94
Height/Weight: 6’3”/ 245 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2016 draft, University of Florida; signed for $909,200.
Previous Ranking(s): #7 (Org)
2018 Stats: .314/.440/.573, 15 HR, 0 SB in 65 games at AA Binghamton; .260/.355/.585, 21 HR, 0 SB in 67 games at AAA Las Vegas

The Report: Listen, we hate this profile as a rule. This is a R/R college first baseman who is a cover model for the BIG BOY SZN catalog and he doesn’t play great or even particularly good defense. You will go absolutely broke betting on players of this type to make it. But some do, and we think Peter Alonso is going to be one of the exceptions.

We said last year that 2018 would be a big year for Alonso. He killed Double-A for the first half of the season, did the same in Triple-A from mid-July on after a slow first month, and impressed in the Arizona Fall League. We said he projected for plus game power with a chance for more. Thirty-six homers in the high-minors later, the chance got there, and he now projects for 80 game power. We said Dom Smith might establish himself in the majors first and cloud up Alonso’s profile and, well, pretty much the exact opposite of that happened. He’s got power, he’s got patience, he’s got bat speed, he can turn on velocity, he’s got better feel for contact than you usually see in these types of players.

It’s not all roses, obviously; he’d be ahead of Gimenez if it was. Outside of the Vladitos of the world, you don’t know when a guy is going to be able to hit major league sliders until you know, and we don’t know yet. The Mets left him in the minors all year, whether because of service time or 40-man considerations or a veteran fetish, robbing us of the chance to know. He’s still, generously, a work-in-progress with the glove at first base, although he ranges and throws well enough. We believe that he’s “playable bad” there instead of “needs to be traded to the American League,” but there are scouts who project the latter.

The Role:

OFP 60—First-division first baseman, routinely a league leader in homers

Likely 55—Above-average first baseman/DH, occasionally a league leader in homers

The Risks: Low-to-medium, depending on how you look at it. There’s low risk in the tools, he’s about as fully-formed as a prospect can be, in part because he shouldn’t be prospect-eligible. There’s still substantial risk in the profile until we see how good he is at getting on base against MLB pitching. There isn’t a ton separating Rhys Hoskins and C.J. Cron in profile or skills, but that slight gap is the difference between a star and a waiver claim. Mets fans might also cringe at the exit velocity hype after The Eric Campbell Experience. —Jarrett Seidler

Major league ETA: July 2018

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Frankly, I’m shocked Brendan let me write this. It’s not that my favorite player growing up was Howard Johnson, or that I can still remember exactly where I was when Todd Pratt hit the walkoff homer that sent the Mets to the NLCS in 1999 (the percussion building of the old Sam Ash in midtown Manhattan.) It’s that I’ve been subscribing to BIG BOY SZN for over a decade now. I own a Dan Vogelbach Cubs shirsey unironically. This profile weakens me, and although guidance counselors and career advisors alike will tell you to identify your weaknesses so that you can overcome them, that implies you want to overcome them. So yes I’m on board with Alonso as a top-10 dynasty prospect, and yes I’m on board with Alonso as a 40-homer bat, and yes I’m on board with Alonso being a top-200 pick in redraft formats this season. The average isn’t going to be special, but he could run it up to .280, which could leave him with an OBP approaching .400.

[nexxt]

Others of note:

Low Minors Sleepers

Hansel Moreno, IF/OF (Low-A Columbia)

To be frank, most of this list could broadly be categorized as “low minors sleepers” given the dearth of upper minors prospects, but we’ll add a couple more. Moreno is a toolsy guy with present rawness, but he’s already 22-years-old and only in A-ball. The aforementioned tools may not play on the dirt. He’s filling out and slowing down, and the hands and arm at shortstop are more solid-average than plus. The Mets tried him all over in the South Atlantic League, and he might fit best in center field. There’s potential above-average power in the profile, and he’s already tapping into some of it pull side. Moreno’s approach is raw enough—and he’s old enough—that he might not be more than emergency depth, but he’s also weirdly still projectable given his cohort. In conclusion, Hansel Moreno is a land of contrasts.


Stanley Consuegra, OF (GCL Mets)

Now if I wanted to make a different weird call at #15, it could have easily been Consuegra on a different day or in a different mood. He’s the more traditional 17-year-old complex league hero bet. The Mets gave him $500,000 as part of their 2017 July 2nd class, and he has center field tools and big exit velos, if you are into that sort of thing. He’s a premium athlete with a lot of physical projection left, so this is more like the first page of a Choose Your Own Adventure book. The risk of falling into the volcano at the end is still very high.

2018 Draft Follow

Jaylen Palmer, IF (GCL Mets)

When the Mets aren’t spending Day Three popping low-ceiling college performers, they like to mix in the odd overslot local prep. It doesn’t get much more locavore than Palmer, whose high school is a ten minute jaunt up I-678 from Citi Field. The Mets have had about as much luck with these prep flyers as the Day Three college bats, but Palmer might be a hidden gem. He had a huge growth spurt in high school and now garners Shervyen Newton comps. He’s less likely to stick on the dirt than Newton, profiling best in a corner outfield spot, but he may also have the tools to carry that profile. Check back in four years to see if Gary Cohen will be making references to Flushing’s own Jaylen Palmer or if that will be the purview of Tim Heiman.

[nexxt]

Top Talents 25 and Under:

Amed Rosario, SS
Edwin Diaz, RHP
Andres Gimenez, SS
Peter Alonso, 1B
Ronny Mauricio, SS
Robert Gsellman, RHP
Shervyen Newton, IF
Mark Vientos, 3B
David Peterson, LHP
Dominic Smith, 1B/“OF”

Rosario is, for the time being, still a Met. His performance in the majors has been more mediocre than great, but sometimes we forget that he’s only a year-and-a-half off being our no. 2 prospect in baseball on the 2017 midseason top 50. The low bar at shortstop means that even with his weak DRC+ and FRAA numbers, he was still about three-quarters of a win above replacement last year. He’s been rumored to be available in trade, because he’ll return a superstar and Gimenez is coming quickly; Gimenez might be a better long-term fit at shortstop if not quite a better player overall. That reality also could also push Rosario off shortstop to center field or third base within the next season or two if he remains a Met.

Díaz ahead of the top prospects feels hot takey, but it’s also pretty clear that he has more value than Gimenez or Alonso. You’d trade either of those guys for him straight up in a heartbeat, no? Put it another way—Díaz is a role 7, and that’s higher than either Gimenez or Alonso’s OFP. He’s among the small handful of the best relievers in baseball, he doesn’t turn 25 until nearly Opening Day, and he’s got a pretty clean pro health record. It’s okay to question whether the Mets were in a position to be trading for an elite closer, but he’s a hell of a pitcher.

Mickey Callaway spent a lot of the spring and summer using Gsellman like he was an Andrew Miller-style durable relief ace. It went better than it did in 2017—his fastball and slider played up in short bursts as we expected they might, and he should be at least a good MLB reliever moving forward. But he looked gassed at various points in the season when used too heavily. Díaz’s acquisition should push him into a more traditional setup role, and hopefully he’ll be supplemented by further acquisitions in the pen to take some of the load off.

The unceremonious salary dump of Jay Bruce slightly reopens the window for Smith to re-establish himself as a regular. 2018 was rough, with mediocre performance at both the majors and Triple-A followed by a short and difficult stint in winter ball. Somewhat bizarrely, he spent 39 games puttering around in the outfield in a fashion all too familiar to those who remember the escapades of Lucas Duda. There’s playing time available at first base until the Mets end the service time charade and call Alonso up, but even there Smith’s path has roadblocks. The current situation with four MLB infielders currently projected to split 2B/SS/3B could easily spill over into first base too. Time is becoming Smith’s enemy.

Several circumstances conspired to make this list fairly easy. Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo are both ineligible by less than a month, and Jeff McNeil was a couple weeks more of missed playing time away from the rare “on the Top Ten but not on the 25U” exacta. Gsellman vs. Justin Dunn would’ve been a difficult call down here, but Dunn was gone before we had to make that choice. Drew Smith and Tyler Bashlor might’ve made a top 15, but they’re clearly a cut below Kilome and Szapucki.

For the record, Jarred Kelenic would’ve ranked fourth before the trade, between Alonso and Mauricio. Dunn would’ve ranked fifth out of the prospects, between Mauricio and Newton. We’ll have their full write-ups in the Seattle list, so long as the Mariners actually keep them. —Jarrett Seidler

[Hire]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1544016041

Baseball America chat about the Mets top 10 prospect list. Worth a read

[hammerhead]

Mauricio is my new guy now that Kelenic is gone

[WaitTillNextSeason]

Originally Posted by hammerhead

Mauricio is my new guy now that Kelenic is gone

You're not exactly going out on a limb there

[WaitTillNextSeason]

who needs Pollock when we'll have Ross Adolph in 2021?

[Joey Dirt]

Carl S (Queens): Alonso, Alonso, Alonso Alonso Alonso? Alonso? But for real- what’s your bold prediction for him this year- gotta imagine he’s a ROY candidate and potential HR Derby participant? .260 25/80Rbi out of the question?


Matt Eddy: I'll admit it. Coming into the year, I was skeptical of Alonso's impact potential in the major leagues. As a longtime Baseball American, it's in my DNA to be skeptical of RH hitting first basemen. (We were light on Mark McGwire, on Frank Thomas, on Paul Goldschmidt, on Rhys Hoskins, etc.) But when you weigh the value of the Statcast and TrackMan data that is telling us that Alonso is doing things than literally no other hitter has done, well, that's convincing data to me. I think a rookie projection of .250 with 25-30 HR and a healthy walk rate is in play.

[Joey Dirt]

He seems to really like Cecchini still.

[hammerhead]

Originally Posted by WaitTillNextSeason

You're not exactly going out on a limb there

They all can’t be like sexy lugo

[RM57]

What about those 3 guys they signed this year Lugo/Alvarez/Valdez

I wonder where they will be at this time next year

[Felix the Cat]

Originally Posted by Joey Dirt

He seems to really like Cecchini still.

gym rat

[tejdog1]

Dan Vogelbach lol. There's a name for you.

Alonso sounds fun.

[Pickles]

Among scouts with Mets coverage its been Mauricio over Kelenic.

[WC]

wow