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Old 09-14-2018, 10:43 AM   #81
MJN29
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He's still young. He's only had 2 prolonged stretches of being bad in his career and one of them was coming off of a serious shoulder injury. The kid is a star. Some Mets fans treat him like he's Travis d'Arnaud.
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Old 09-14-2018, 10:55 AM   #82
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Rather have him hit 15 HR and bat .305
Whenever you have the choice of taking runs off the board in favor of meaningless singles you have to do it!
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:19 AM   #83
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Rather have him hit 15 HR and bat .305
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:20 AM   #84
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Yeah, the difference between Conforto hitting .238 and .305 right now is 32 hits. Doesn't seem like a very good trade off.
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:23 AM   #85
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Rather have him hit 15 HR and bat .305
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:55 AM   #86
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I'd rather him have 10 game winning RBIs than 26 home runs.
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:04 PM   #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMaskedMan View Post
Yeah, the difference between Conforto hitting .238 and .305 right now is 32 hits. Doesn't seem like a very good trade off.
Tell that to McNeil
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:12 PM   #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMaskedMan View Post
Yeah, the difference between Conforto hitting .238 and .305 right now is 32 hits. Doesn't seem like a very good trade off.
I didn't check your numbers but that would be a positive trade off even in the worst case scenario
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:16 PM   #89
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can't just erase the home runs before getting up to .305 or he'd be hitting less than .238, gotta turn home runs into singles at the worst

-30 total bases to go from 10 home runs to 10 singles, add another 32 singles, positive trade.

madoff's mets wins!
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:28 PM   #90
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32 extra hits is a lot. especially for someone who is currently sitting on 115 hits.
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:29 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by Wright2Ike View Post
Whenever you have the choice of taking runs off the board in favor of meaningless singles you have to do it!
I'd rather .315 and 15 HR's also, and it's not even a remotely difficult decision. What do you mean "meaningless singles?" OH, you know for a fact that NONE of those singles would drive in runs? Or start/extend rallies that lead to multiple runs?? With Nimmo/Rosario and McNeil in front of him, it's a given that every one of those hits would be useless 2 out singles, huh?

I'm sorry, I know this is the new analytics-driven mentality. We don't want to hear that X is valuable because it might lead to Y. If "X" can't be plugged into a formula that PROVES definitely that it will immediately result directly in Y? Then it's useless!!
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:31 PM   #92
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I'd rather .315 and 15 HR's also, and it's not even a remotely difficult decision. What do you mean "meaningless singles?" OH, you know for a fact that NONE of those singles would drive in runs? Or start/extend rallies that lead to multiple runs?? With Nimmo/Rosario and McNeil in front of him, it's a given that every one of those hits would be useless 2 out singles, huh?

I'm sorry, I know this is the new analytics-driven mentality. We don't want to hear that X is valuable because it might lead to Y. If "X" can't be plugged into a formula that PROVES definitely that it will immediately result directly in Y? Then it's useless!!
Stll
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:45 PM   #93
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32 extra hits would put his OBP close to .400. His slugging wouldnt change much, worst case it probably moves up a couple of points.

So he would be somewhere around .305/.398/.436/.834


so basically, who would you rather have:

a: .238/.342/.433/.775 with 25hrs

b: .305/.398/.436/.834 with 15hrs

Last edited by tloka; 09-14-2018 at 12:48 PM.
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:53 PM   #94
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Yeah I was wrong, didn't think it through enough.
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:54 PM   #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tloka View Post
32 extra hits would put his OBP close to .400. His slugging wouldnt change much, worst case it probably moves up a couple of points.

So he would be somewhere around .305/.398/.436/.834


so basically, who would you rather have:

a: .238/.342/.433/.775 with 25hrs

b: .305/.398/.436/.834 with 15hrs

That depends on how often ppl were on base ahead of him and who hits behind him

Getting on base 32 more times via hits, and making 10 of his HRs into outs, could well mean the Mets score at least one more run in up to 32 games... If the Mets we're good at turning baserunners into runs
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:55 PM   #96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sixstring View Post
I'd rather .315 and 15 HR's also, and it's not even a remotely difficult decision. What do you mean "meaningless singles?" OH, you know for a fact that NONE of those singles would drive in runs? Or start/extend rallies that lead to multiple runs?? With Nimmo/Rosario and McNeil in front of him, it's a given that every one of those hits would be useless 2 out singles, huh?

I'm sorry, I know this is the new analytics-driven mentality. We don't want to hear that X is valuable because it might lead to Y. If "X" can't be plugged into a formula that PROVES definitely that it will immediately result directly in Y? Then it's useless!!
No, a couple of us got it wrong. It's not an indictment of analytics, it was misuse of them by some people on a message board, which nobody disputes is a thing that occurs. Actual analytics support your argument, which has been demonstrated.

I was actually wrong because I *didn't* do the math, ironically.

Last edited by TheMaskedMan; 09-14-2018 at 12:58 PM.
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:58 PM   #97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robardin View Post
That depends on how often ppl were on base ahead of him and who hits behind him

Getting on base 32 more times via hits, and making 10 of his HRs into outs, could well mean the Mets score at least one more run in up to 32 games... If the Mets we're good at turning baserunners into runs
the 10 hrs dont turn into outs. In this scenario the 10 hrs turn into singles.
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Old 09-14-2018, 07:33 PM   #98
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conforto sucks and should hit more singles case closed
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Old 09-14-2018, 07:51 PM   #99
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The solution is obvious.

He should hit .315 with 35 home runs.
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Old 09-14-2018, 07:52 PM   #100
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How about if he hits 2 less HR and gets 100 more singles? Would anyone prefer that?
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