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Old 01-29-2019, 09:57 AM   #1
gramazins
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Default Keith Law's Top 50-100

Highest Met was Vientos at 60 and I believe that he will also be the highest on the list overall from his comment. I was more surprised that there were a few Mets still on the list after the trades this winter.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/stor...cts-nos-100-51

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60. 3B Mark Vientos
Vientos has been a bit of a forgotten man in the Mets' system, with more highly touted prospects around him, some playing at higher levels, as well as undue attention given to a publicity stunt in their Double-A outfield last year. But trades and Vientos' own progress have him as the system's best prospect now, and he is set to spend all of 2019 in full-season ball at age 19 after a very strong summer with short-season Kingsport as a true 18-year-old. Vientos finished tied for fourth in the Appalachian League in homers, fifth in walks and tied for 11th in doubles, with a swing optimized for launch angle but that also gets the barrel into the zone for enough time to maximize his hard contact.

A poor defensive shortstop in high school, Vientos has become an adequate defender at third, still improving but also still growing into his 6-foot-4 frame, so there's some chance he has to move off the position just due to sheer size. His OBP/contact/power profile should play anywhere, with his best chance to be a star coming at third but a high probability that he will be a regular even in right field or at first base.

90. 1B Peter Alonso

Alonso led the minors in home runs last year, bashing 36 between Double-A Binghamton and hitter-friendly Triple-A Las Vegas, and then tied for the AFL lead with six more. Alonso was more of a hitter for average who happened to have some power at the University of Florida, from which the Mets took him in the second round in 2016. But in pro ball, he has become more power-centric, even selling out sometimes to pull the ball. He also has become more vulnerable to velocity in on his hands as a result of his pull-happy approach, although his history suggests he can be more of an all-fields hitter without sacrificing all of that power.

Alonso has always been big, but he is large enough now that he's a 40-grade defender at first base, and I think there's a real chance he'll have to DH in the long term -- as do many scouts who saw him struggle on defense last season or in the Arizona Fall League. The Mets seem committed to playing him at first this year, and he seems likely to hit 20 to 25 homers even if he strikes out too often, with above-average upside if he can balance his approach between contact and power.

97. SS . Andre Giminez

Gimenez has performed well as a teenager in full-season ball over the past two years, which helps him grade out well in projection systems that (appropriately) weigh age relative to level, but he doesn't have the sort of offensive upside that most players this young would have. He is a solid 60-grade defender at shortstop, enough that he'll likely have a long major league career no matter what he does with the stick. At the plate, however, he doesn't project to have much impact -- at the very least, he has to get a lot stronger, and he doesn't have the body or swing to ever be a big power guy. His secret weapon is his baserunning.

He is an average to above-average runner, and his 38 steals put him in the top 20 in all of minor league baseball last year, with instincts that should help him improve his success rate going forward. He could be a regular for some teams or a utility infielder on playoff clubs; either way, he could play a long time in the majors, with peak seasons in which he hits .280/.340/.380 with 10 homers and 40 steals.

99. SS Ronnie Mauricio

The Mets are really loaded with shortstop prospects, which is a very good area in which to have a lot of depth. Luis Guillorme is probably an 80-grade defender, just without much offense to speak of. Sherwyn Newton, a Dutch prospect with big tools and a crude approach at the plate, is a 65 defender, perhaps a future 70, with more upside with the stick. Mauricio has the best balance across the board of tools and skills, having both offensive and defensive upside, and thus the best chance of the group to become a star.

Mauricio is a switch-hitter who projects to hit for average and power, with a lean, wiry body that is still highly projectable. He showed an ability to make contact beyond what most 17-year-olds can do in short-season ball. (However, after his 1 for 7 performance last summer, perhaps stealing bases won't be part of his game.) His hands are loose and easy at the plate, and he has the kind of quick actions in the field you would expect from a fast-twitch athlete, such as on the transfer to his throwing hand. He signed for $2.1 million in 2017, the largest bonus the Mets had ever given an amateur player to that point, and the early returns are really strong, with All-Star upside and a path that could get him to the majors by 2022.

Last edited by gramazins; 01-29-2019 at 09:59 AM. Reason: Adding URL to full Article
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Old 01-29-2019, 09:59 AM   #2
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Also for those curious:

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58 SP Justin Dunn

The "other" prospect who went to the Mariners in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal is a solid player in his own right, a former first-rounder who got too caught up in spin rate in 2017 but bounced back with a huge 2018. Dunn was a reliever at Boston College until early in his junior year, when his velocity spiked and the Eagles' staff put him in the rotation. He is extremely athletic, but he was still somewhat raw for a college pitcher when the Mets drafted him; it took until 2018 to get him to a delivery he could repeat well, one that also gave him more extension out toward the plate to improve the carry on his mid-90s fastball and the finish on his slider.

The fastball alone plays right now, and both his slider and curveball can show plus, with the changeup the one pitch that's behind, in large part because he seldom had to use it as an amateur. I know of one opposing Double-A manager who said Dunn was the best pitcher his team had faced in all of 2018. He has more volatility in his projections, because he hasn't pitched a ton and still has work to do with his repertoire and command; but he has at least No. 2 starter upside, and you could squint hard and see even more if you truly believe in his athleticism and aptitude.
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Old 01-29-2019, 10:12 AM   #3
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Dunn's curve shows plus? Since when?
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Old 01-29-2019, 10:15 AM   #4
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I don't think it needs to be said again that Law is just one guy and he rarely if ever moves off his initial opinion but it's been that stubbornness and general dickishness that's made him a successful persona

But I said it again
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Old 01-29-2019, 05:06 PM   #5
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Anyone have the full list?
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Old 01-29-2019, 09:02 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaitTillNextSeason View Post
I don't think it needs to be said again that Law is just one guy and he rarely if ever moves off his initial opinion but it's been that stubbornness and general dickishness that's made him a successful persona

But I said it again
I appreciate that Law's list doesn't appear to be the same list as everyone else's list
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Old 01-29-2019, 10:03 PM   #7
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that's true, but most of his outlier opinions seem to turn out pretty bad (see: Dom Smith)

I think that's the first time I've seen Dunn's curve praised as a pro
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Old 01-29-2019, 10:04 PM   #8
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How long did it take for him to switch on Thor vs Sanchez lol
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Old 01-30-2019, 12:12 AM   #9
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We would have placed 6 in the top 100. Exactly the rebound that many pointed out on here.

Last edited by trikery; 01-30-2019 at 12:16 AM.
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Old 01-30-2019, 08:07 PM   #10
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Idc about rankings there aren’t 10 prospects I’d take over Alonso right now
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:01 AM   #11
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Quote:
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Idc about rankings there arenít 10 prospects Iíd take over Alonso right now
Really? In baseball? Man, youíve got to get me whatever your smoking.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:05 AM   #12
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I'd think a team that had a SS who plays 60 defense and puts up .280/.340 with 10 homers and 40 steals might make the playoffs.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:42 AM   #13
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Gimenez generally showed more pop last season; I don't think he's necessarily doomed to sub-.100 ISOs even if he's never more than a doubles hitter
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Old 01-31-2019, 11:05 AM   #14
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After seeing the Mets names on this list is it safe to assume that he won't have any Mets prospects in his top 50?
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Old 01-31-2019, 11:24 AM   #15
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Quote:
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After seeing the Mets names on this list is it safe to assume that he won't have any Mets prospects in his top 50?
yes, although Kelenic will be there
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:56 PM   #16
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He already released it, Kelenic is 38
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Old 01-31-2019, 04:18 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harvey4CY View Post
Idc about rankings there arenít 10 prospects Iíd take over Alonso right now
How many 1B are currently in the top 10 players in baseball? Maybe the best 1B in the game ranks as the 25th to 35th best overall player in baseball. 1B who slug 30 homers are out there looking for jobs every year.
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Old 01-31-2019, 05:51 PM   #18
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Goldy or ya boy Freddie aren't top 20 position players?

5 1b hit more than 25 last year

3 had a WAR over 5 and none of them played particularly good defense

might not be as valuable as an elite SS who hits for power but that only matters if you have a perfect team filled with well above average players everywhere. a guy with 70 power who can actually hit is exciting even as a poor defensive 3b.

how many guys in baseball right now can hit 40 home runs
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Old 02-01-2019, 01:18 AM   #19
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If Alonso reaches the upper limits of his upside, he'd be an extremely valuable, star-level player

maybe not by WAR because defense but stud power hitters are valuable no matter what position they play

of course, the gap in real skills/tools between say, Lucas Duda and Joey Votto isn't that wide, but the gap in value is gigantic, obviously, and there's a future in which Alonso becomes Lucas Duda but I prefer the future in which he becomes Joey Votto with more power
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Old 02-01-2019, 04:23 PM   #20
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Joey Votto with more power is Barry Bonds
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There is also the fact that when we got back to her place I needed to drop a fat shit, which I absolutely should have done at the restaurant but did not for some reason. No spray, no candles, no nothin. I was praying she didn't have to use the bathroom for a few minutes after I went, but of course the universe hates me and she went in like 3 minutes later. I'm thinking that Eu de MoMo did not help the situation.
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