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Old 01-14-2019, 02:38 PM   #1
pedagogue
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Default Clay Buchholz...5th Spot option?

His limited time with AZ last year was way better than expected.
98.1in, 2.01ERA, 3.47FIP, 1.037WHIP

His Steamer projection for 2019 is much better than I expected.
104in, 3.63ERA, 1.240WHIP

I’d actually trust him more than Gio.

Thoughts?
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Old 01-14-2019, 02:40 PM   #2
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it was bizarre how good he was last year out of nowhere.

i made this thread http://www.metsrefugees.com/forum/sh...d.php?t=133751

From early September last year..

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He's allowed just two runs over 28 innings of work his last four starts.
6-1 with a 1.55 ERA and 52/15 K/BB ratio in his last 10 starts dating back to June 17.
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Old 01-14-2019, 02:42 PM   #3
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Anyone but Vargas
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Old 01-14-2019, 02:42 PM   #4
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I said the other day, i'll take whichever one of Holland/Miley/Hellickson/Buchholz signs a reasonable 1 year deal. Guess Holland is off the table now, but the rest remains true.

I prefer any of those scenarios to giving Gio, a pitcher already clearly in decline, multiple years.
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Old 01-14-2019, 03:14 PM   #5
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I'd take nearly anyone to take Vargas' spot in the rotation...I'm not going to say anyone though because I will never underestimate the Mets ability to make the wrong decision...Buchholz seems like a good choice though
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Old 01-14-2019, 03:15 PM   #6
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Yeah, I'd sign him up. Figure he can't break the bank, wouldn't get more than what Holland just signed for. You never know when his health will give out is the big issue. But still a good target to fight Vargas for the 5th spot.
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Old 01-14-2019, 03:19 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by ADOV View Post
I said the other day, i'll take whichever one of Holland/Miley/Hellickson/Buchholz signs a reasonable 1 year deal. Guess Holland is off the table now, but the rest remains true.

I prefer any of those scenarios to giving Gio, a pitcher already clearly in decline, multiple years.

I wanted the Dutch Oven but I'll take any of the above instead of Vargas.

Was on the Hellickson train last year... we were probably in the 81-82 win range if you swap him for Vargas.
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Old 01-14-2019, 03:36 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pedagogue View Post
His limited time with AZ last year was way better than expected.
98.1in, 2.01ERA, 3.47FIP, 1.037WHIP

His Steamer projection for 2019 is much better than I expected.
104in, 3.63ERA, 1.240WHIP

I’d actually trust him more than Gio.

Thoughts?
I’d prefer Gio, Buchholz is always hurt. I’m sure he will come at a bargain so he’s not a bad choice tho
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Old 01-14-2019, 04:02 PM   #9
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Was a big fan about half a decade ago when he had a nasty curveball to go with good velocity. He has literally had 1 good full season (2010) where he made 28 starts and 3 good half seasons. Every other yr he has been hurt throughout his entire career. He just came off his good half season last yr so expect a good 14 starts out of him in 2020. I wouldn't waste the money unless he came super cheap with all incentives. Look @ history. 2010 good full season....2013 great half season. Best case he pitches good back to back for the 1st time ever at 34 and even then you're looking at half a season. Much better bets imo. Anybody know what his avg fastball velocity was? I assume he still has a fairly good curve. In his prime he had a nasty 2 pitch arsenal but control and health has kept him from ever putting it together. 1 good full season in his career
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Old 01-14-2019, 04:18 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by arjohn2.0 View Post
I wanted the Dutch Oven but I'll take any of the above instead of Vargas.

Was on the Hellickson train last year... we were probably in the 81-82 win range if you swap him for Vargas.
Jeremy Hellickson is the guy I'd target given his expected asking price of 1 yr & 8mill ish & he will at least give you quality innings. I'd love this off-season if Brody can finish it off with 1 more solid pitcher. Preferably a SP but a solid RP would work too. Would allow us to use Gsellman/Santiago/etc to start if/when Vargas gets lit up.

Icing on the cake would be to dump Frazier salary. He has no spot anymore. His only role would be as a RH platoon/pinch hitter but given he was garbage vs LHP last yr Id just assume go with Davis who shows all the signs of being able to hit LHP & has more position flexibility than Frazier. My biggest fear is having to watch Frazier K and hit slow rollers to the pull side while Alonso wastes away in AAA & McNeil loses at bats. Start McNeil @ 1st til the super 2 cutoff then get Alonso up here & work McNeil in the OF vs tough RHP like Scherzer/Strasburg/Nola/Arrieta etc...

If Frazier starts opening day vs Scherzer while McNeil sits I'll lose a lot of faith in the Mets decision makers. BVW needs to make sure Mickey doesnt waste the depth & options he has been given. McNeil is perfect against guys like Scherzer...Frazier is perfect if u want 3k's and a groundout to the 3rd baseman on a ball 3 inches outside. Dude has the ugliest swing this side of Heyward
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Old 01-14-2019, 04:23 PM   #11
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I'm gonna assume Flavor Fraz is the opening day 1st baseman with Lowrie starting at 3rd...I don't think they'd start McNeil at 1st
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Old 01-14-2019, 04:41 PM   #12
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Definitely would take a shot on Buchholz. Unfortunately the minute he puts on a Mets uni he'd probably just get hurt/suck, but his upside is better than Vargas and every other realistic FA option
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Old 01-14-2019, 04:46 PM   #13
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Definitely would take a shot on Buchholz. Unfortunately the minute he puts on a Mets uni he'd probably just get hurt/suck, but his upside is better than Vargas and every other realistic FA option
well, with Vargas there, we have a little bit more breathing room if Buccholz does get injured...I think his injury concerns can bring down his asking price, so this could be the move we're looking for...if he's healthy, sky's the limit to what he'd be able to provide...we saw how well he pitched last year when he was healthy
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Old 01-14-2019, 05:13 PM   #14
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Hurt way too much. Pass.
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Old 01-14-2019, 05:40 PM   #15
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I'm gonna assume Flavor Fraz is the opening day 1st baseman with Lowrie starting at 3rd...I don't think they'd start McNeil at 1st
Unfortunately, I think flava flav's worthless sub 700 ops is starting @ 1B as well. I'm hoping he is traded for anything. I could stomach 3 weeks of him but knowing the Mets they will let Frazier hit .210 with a .700 ops for 2 months before replacing him despite multiple better options. Hopefully with BVW & this being Salt n Peppers last season we dont let him drag the whole lineup down for longer than a month. Crossing my fingers he gets hurt in ST right before the season if we dont trade him.
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Old 01-14-2019, 05:43 PM   #16
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Unfortunately, I think flava flav's worthless sub 700 ops is starting @ 1B as well. I'm hoping he is traded for anything. I could stomach 3 weeks of him but knowing the Mets they will let Frazier hit .210 with a .700 ops for 2 months before replacing him despite multiple better options. Hopefully with BVW & this being Salt n Peppers last season we dont let him drag the whole lineup down for longer than a month. Crossing my fingers he gets hurt in ST right before the season if we dont trade him.
i think we trade him...BroMar seems to want this to be his team and wants to rid himself of any previous mistakes made...unfortunately, Vargas was a former client, so I don't think he's going anywhere
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Old 01-14-2019, 05:50 PM   #17
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Moving Frazier would definitely be addition through subtraction.

As for Buchholz & health...if he weren’t a risk, i’d expect his asking price to be multi-year and at an AAV much higher than the Mets would consider. Since Alternative options all have warts too, I’d rather roll the dice on Buchholz than have Vargas 2.0.
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Old 01-14-2019, 06:17 PM   #18
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Anyone but Vargas
Not true, no way id want OLLIE P in that spot. lol
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Old 01-14-2019, 07:35 PM   #19
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I don’t believe in the Mets’ starting pitching, not because of a lack of talent - the front 4 guys have enough talent to make up for most 5th starters. My problem is that Wheeler and Matz certainly, and maybe even Syndergaard, have not shown themselves to be durable at least not in the Mets system. Maybe in an organization that does a better job of managing injuries (aka the idiot ownership defers to experts) it would be different, but as Mets they strike me as TDA on the mound - injuries waiting to happen.

They needed to add SP this year (as has been the case in the last few), and they failed.
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:27 AM   #20
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When has a team actually had too many quality arms? HOU shuffled during their run, but most teams could always use more. Too bad the Mets can’t get Bartolo to pitch like he did back in 2016: 191.2in with a 3.43ERA. The Mets are in dire need of a backend horse that can give them 190in, which would cut down the wear and tear on their BP.
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