« Jimmy Rollins Placed on Disabled List | Main | Refugees Draft Coverage ‘08: A review of last year’s draft »
It’s Not Collusion, Barry, It’s The Baggage
By JPSchmack | May 7, 2008
The MLB players’ association has opened an investigation into the free-agent market. The MLBPA has been investigating for several weeks what has taken place in free agency, in relation to Barry Bonds, Kenny Lofton and other players who have gone unsigned. It is something they have done in the past.
Jeff Borris, the agent for Bonds, said, “No team has made me an offer for any amount at any time since Barry became a free agent.”
Now despite the title, I’m going to simply ignore the baggage. From a pure talent standpoint, it might seem that a team would be willing to kick the tires on a player with incredible OBP and power to hit more home runs than anyone, ever. Clearly a team interested would have to be a veteran, contending team with a need. This would preclude: KC, MIN, PIT, STL, CIN, FLA, WAS, TB, TOR, BAL and most importantly, SF and OAK.
Leaving 18 teams who might consider him. Of those teams many simply do not have the need by virtue of the fact that they have either:
a) an incumbant at that position who is clearly a starter in LF in the case of NL teams.
b) a tandem of LF/DH who are also firmly entrenched, including one left hander in the case of AL teams.
Philly (Pat Burrell), Colorado (Holliday), Chicago (Soriano), Milwaukee (Braun), Arizona (Byrnes), Houston (Lee), Los Angeles (Either); Boston (Manny and Ortiz), Chicago (Quentin and Thome), the Yankees (Matsui and Damon), Anaheim (Anderson and Vlad/Hunter/Matthews) would limit potential Bonds suitors to seven teams: NYM, ATL, SD, CLE, DET, SEA, TEX.
Of those seven, five are in the bottom nine in OPS by a LF. Counting down from “least-likely to be interested…”
San Diego (#26 OPS by LF) has offensive problems in LF (and the OF in general). However, much of that is due to ballpark anyhow. The ballpark is a big factor for them, considering it’s one of the largest in the game. Edmonds and Giles have limited range, and since they are 9th in doubles allowed and sixth in doubles allowed already, Bonds in LF would not be beneficial to their defense. Considering they are behind Colorado and Arizona (plus LA) in the division; its unlikely they seriously consider Bonds before the All-Star break.
Atlanta (#22 OPS by LF) could conceivably platoon Bonds and Matt Diaz. However, they appear content to keep payroll to a minimum, as they have for the last five years, and play youngsters. They haven’t paid for a free agent (aside from Glavine’s return) in quite some time. Considering they were widely picked to finish third in the NL East, it’s easy to see why the Braves would only have considered Bonds if he were still looking for a job in mid-summer and they found themselves in contention. However, they now have massive rotation issues with Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine and Hampton all missing time, so their money is better spent elsewhere.
Cleveland (#23 OPS by LF) has no DH opening, between Hafner (LHB) and Garko at 1B/DH; Victor Martinez (S) and Kelly Shoppach at C/DH. Their starting LF (Dellucci) is a lefty, as is Shin-Soo Choo (on the DL). With four of their top offensive players being switch-hitters or LHB, they are probably too left-handed to consider Bonds. Plus there is the money factor.
Texas (#15th in OPS by LF) doesn’t have a huge need. Four of their healthy OFs are left-handed, including both LF: (Catalonotto and David Murphy, both with OPS over .775). They also have Broussard (LH) and Blalock (LH) to DH as well. Throw in the fact that they are already in 8 games back of first, and they really have no reason to get Bonds.
The Mets (#25 OPS by LF) have played exactly three games with their starting LF this season; and with Moises Alou turning in an above average .860 OPS vs righties, Bonds may not be needed. The other issue for the Mets, is that Bonds would make them extremely left-handed. Bonds couldn’t hit third or fourth for the Mets, because they’d need to replace him late for defense (and they used Endy Chavez, a LHB, to replace a 42-year old Alou late in games last season).
The current 4-8 of the Mets features: Beltran (S), Delgado (L), Bonds (L), Church (L), Schneider (L), plus Alou (R) who’d hit the bench for Bonds. That’s four-straight LHB. The only possible configuration for the Mets would be: Reyes (S) - Church (L) - Beltran (S) - Wright (R) - Delgado (L) - Bonds (L)/Alou (R) - Schneider (L) - Castillo (S).
But this would also result in using three LF in a game, Bonds to start, Alou as a situational hitter, and Chavez in a double-switch for defense.
Plus, the addition of Johan Santana’s $20 contract and the rest of the Mets high payroll makes Bonds’ a frivilous expenditure. Especially considering the Mets haven’t seen their offense intact with a healthy Alou to know if they truly have a need.
Realistically, the two teams most often discussed with Bonds are Seattle and Detroit. The AP story from which I stole the first two paragraphs specifically mentioned them as “a classic situation for Bonds — the need for a left-handed hitter and an opening at designated hitter.”
Yet, Seattle is 9th in OPS by LF early in 2008 with the LH hitting Raul Ibanez leading the team in OPS.
The Mariners have a clear need for a power-bat vs RHP (.655 OPS vs RHP as a team). And LH DH candidate Brad Wilkerson is OPSing .663 vs RHP.
Switch-hitting DH Jose Vidro is struggling against everyone and Bonds would look fine in his role. However, while Vidro’s production is opening the door for Bonds, Vidro’s contract is probably what kept the Mariners away: Vidro makes $8.5 million; limiting the teams’ ability to add Bonds.
And Detroit’s DH spot is firmly entrenched by Gary Sheffield. He’s been hampered by injuries and while struggling vs LHP, has done okay with a .732 OPS vs RHP. Detroit expects him to recover. They also have Brandon Inge without a position now because Carlos Guillen is now a 1B/DH as well.
Many point to Jacque Jones’ release as a sign they need a LF, however, due to the injury to start the season to CF Curtis Granderson, they Tigers have been using their LF candidates in CF (Inge, Thames, Ryan Raburn). The Tigers are still the most-likely destination; but will probably give Inge every chance to win the job (and for Sheffield to regain his form) before looking to Bonds.
The other massive factor in all this is Bonds’ durability. Simply mentioning the fact that at age 44, and playing only 842 innings of defense last season eliminates him as a candidate for any team with no need of a DH could have saved a lot of time. Considering most teams would consider Bonds capable of playing at most a half-season, there’s absolutely zero need to contact Bonds before June.
If you’re Seattle, you don’t anticipate Vidro’s OPS being under .600. With Ibanez in LF and Vidro making $8.5, there’s no need to contact Bonds in the off-season. If the team is contending at mid-season and Vidro is struggling vs RHP, then you add him for the stretch.
If you’re Detroit, you’re expected to score oodles of runs with Granderson-Rentaria-Cabrera-Ordonez-Sheffield-Guillen-Polanco-Rodriguez-Jones as your pre-season lineup. If anything, Detroit would need to upgrade speedsters and find a second leadoff man to hit ninth, not a power-bat in the middle with their 3-7. They were widely regarded to dominate half the AL and easily make the playoffs.
For virtually all of baseball, Bonds was ALWAYS only a late-season possibility. If not for position surplus and economic reasons, then for the simple fact that most teams would not want to deal with the media circus which surrounds Bonds unless he was absolutely necessary. And that need would not be known until mid-season.
From a Mets standpoint: You can read the Refugees thoughts on adding Bonds HERE
Personally, I think the Mets should consider offering Bonds a chance to stay in shape in New Orleans, solely to boost attendance in New Orleans. The current Zephyr outfield consists of:
Jesus Feliciano (starting CF; 28 years old); Chris Aguila (Marlins castaway, 29 years old); Valentino Pascucci (29 year-old AAA-lifer signed because he’s from Baton Rouge and hits HR); Victor Mendez (RF/LF; 27 years old); and Brady Clark (who passed waivers, pondered retirement and was 50-50 getting on the plane from his hometown of Portland to continue his career).
Plus the possibility of the DH exists in the PCL, the Zephyrs employed a DH last season vs AL minor league teams at home on multiple occasions; however it seemed exclusively limited to specific series (possibly involving rehabbing players).
Topics: Uncategorized |
Comments
You must be logged in to post a comment.