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Position to Fail: Willie’s Use of the Pen vs Philly (4/8/2008)
By JPSchmack | April 9, 2008
Breaking down the Opening Day Bullpen Implosion. Due to time constraints, we skip to the top of the 7th inning, Mets lead 2-0. Joe Smith is the pitcher of record.
Dobbs sent in to PH
Willie replaces Smith with Scott Schoeneweis
The tone is set with a bad move to start. Dobbs is an excellent choice vs Smith (.808 OPS vs RHP in 2007)
* Note: all stats/splits from 2007 season unless noted as career *
Willie should not have brought in a LHP once Dobbs was announced:
Taguchi 1.130 vs LHP
Rollins .917 vs LHP
Victorino .857 vs LHP
Utley .927 vs LHP
You keep a RHP in for those first three, since if you have to choose a match-up, you’d rather it be a bad Taguchi matchup instead of bad matchups with Jimmy Rollins AND Shane Victorino. There’s a reason Rollins won the MVP and Taguchi is a bench player.
The logical move would have been Jorge Sosa (career stats):
Dobbs: 1-3 vs Sosa
Taguchi (probably PH) 3-8 with 3 doubles (1.125 OPS)
Rollins: 6-26 (.726 OPS)
Victorino: 0-3
Utley: 2-12 (.583 OPS)
Taguchi grounds out. Rollins singles. Victorino singles; 1st and 2nd for Utley.
Normally, under no circumstances should Schoeneweis pitch to Utley.
Utley: 4 for 7, 1.339 OPS vs Show in his career.
Willie could have brought in Sosa there, however with one out, you’d face Howard in a bad spot. However, bringing in Sosa then would allow time for Feliciano to get up and get ready for Howard.
Utley HBP. Bases loaded Howard, one out.
All things considered, Show got off easy vs Utley.
Schoeneweis vs Howard is a good matchup. Howard is 1-6 vs him, and you need a LH pitching to him.
Delgado error, two runs score, tie game.
You can’t blame Willie for Delgado’s miscue. But the fact remains, he had better choices before it got to this spot. It’s the seventh inning, you’re planning on Heilman in the eighth, Wagner in the ninth. With an off day yesterday, you HAVE to play matchups in the 7th. You don’t need to save Feliciano for a later matchup with Howard and Utley, because your closer is a lefty.
The logical progression for this inning, AND ALL FUTURE MEETINGS WITH PHILLY, would be:
Sosa starts the 7th in situations like this (vs Rollins and Victorino, who hit lefties better), and then you bring in a Feliciano for Utley and Howard.
Burrell up, 1st and 2nd. One out.
Sosa replaces Schoeneweis, double-switch puts Chavez in LF, hitting ninth ; Pitcher’s spot up sixth.
Pitching wise, good move now on Willie’s part. Damage has been done, but Sosa is a good matchup with Burrell. Burrell is 0-14 vs Sosa career, with a pair of walks.
Burrell flies out. Werth up, 1st and 3rd, 2 out
Jayson Werth is 1-4 with a 2B, vs Sosa. and you don’t strategize for Jayson Werth and the bottom of the order when you’ve already used two pitchers in the inning. Why give them the chance to plan better?
Werth singles, 3-2, 1st and 2nd for Feliz
Feliz was 2 for 6 with two doubles vs Sosa. Don’t like the matchup, but you can’t bring in another guy here.
Sosa gets Feliz to end the inning.
Bottom of the seventh
Durbin comes in, vs Schneider-Chavez-Reyes
Schneider singles. Chavez up.
This is a good matchup, but Willie didn’t really see it coming unless Durbin was the only guy up in the bullpen when he went out and replaced Show with Sosa. Even then, the Phils had time to get someone else up if they wanted for the top of the Mets order.
Had Willie gone with Sosa FIRST, he wouldn’t have to double switch, and he could have PH with Chavez for Sosa if he had Show still in the pen. But since the game was tied when he brought in Sosa, he had to preserve the bench in case of extra innings.
The double-switch wasn’t a mistake, it was logically quite sound. But he was forced into it by not starting the inning with Sosa.
Chavez hits into a DP.
Reyes singles.
Easley up, 2 outs
Can’t do anything here, he’s got no more 2B.
Easley ends the inning
Top 8: Due up: Ruiz, Taguchi, Rollins
Heilman takes over for Sosa.
Again, right move, because it’s the bottom of the lineup and you want a righty for Rollins/Victorino.
Heilman walks Ruiz
Taguchi sacrifices
Again, we’re still OK. You want a righty vs Rollins and Victorino.
Rollins singles, goes to 2nd on passed ball, Victorino walks
This inning is all on Schneider.
1st and 2nd, one out for Utley
Here’s where Willie’s earlier moves have backed him into a corner. You’re out of your mind to pitch Heilman vs Utley:
Utley 1.004 vs RHP last year; 1.222 OPS vs Heilman career.
However, Willie decides since he’s now trailing, he can’t use all your pitchers if you’re trying to get to extras.
But with Utley and Howard coming up with one out, why would you not go with Feliciano?
Utley has a lower OPS vs lefties and is 3-17 vs Feliciano with 9 Ks (.712 OPS career)
He’s also the guy you want pitching to HOWARD in this situation, too (4 for 14 vs Feliciano career)
Plus the best PH on the Philly bench is Geoff Jenkins, who can’t hit lefties to save his life.
Heilman stays in the game
Utley doubles, 5-2. Howard walked intentionally. Jenkins PH. Jenkins popped out, Werth flies out.
Muniz mops up in the ninth. Mets offense fails to get three runs. Ballgame.
How it should have played out:
Dobbs is announced. Willie can either let Smith take on Dobbs or go with Sosa.
If you go with Sosa, Jenkins would pinch hit because he owns Sosa.
That’s not ideal, but it gets Jenkins out of the game when the worst-case scenario is a solo homer.
But Sosa definitely takes over with no outs in the seventh.
He pitches until Utley comes up (ideally its, 1-2-3)
Feliciano comes in when Utley comes to bat.
If it’s the eight inning we’re golden. If not, Feliciano is still pitching to Utley and Howard. If he sees Werth in the eighth, that’s fine: because Heilman can’t get Werth out (2-for-3). And they aren’t pinch hitting for Werth with Jenkins against Feliciano (if Jenkins is still available).
After Werth, if it’s in the eighth, you go to Heilman.
Ideally, Werth ends the eighth, and it’s Wagner time in the ninth.
If it’s tied or we trail in the ninth, and it’s anyone 7-8-9-1 in the top of the ninth, then we go right back to the reasoning stated above:
If we’re trailing in the ninth, Schoeneweis faces the 9-hole hitter (which could still be Jenkins).
A righty (Heilman) pitches to Rollins-Victorino.
Then Wagner in the 9th or 10th vs Utley-Howard-Werth and beyond.
If the game goes longer, you throw Muniz to the wolves.
I realize I have the benefit of hindsight, but I didn’t actually use what happened as a decision-making factor: I simply used the stats available to our staff prior to the game: 2007 splits, career pitcher vs hitter splits.
This should be the logic for all future games with the Phillies:
In the 7th and beyond, we use Feliciano, Wagner or Schoeneweis vs Utley, Howard, Werth and Jenkins .
We use Sosa, Heilman, Muniz, whomever vs Rollins, Victorino, and anyone else.
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