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We got Santana! Now, how many years?
By Jason E | January 30, 2008
The answer to that question, some of you may be thinking, is “As many as he wants.” I agree. But that doesn’t quite get me to the word count I was going for, so let’s press on.
What exactly is the big deal about signing Santana for five years, through his age 33 season, versus seven years, which would take him through age 35? Well, to answer that question, one would have to make a list of pitchers similar to Johan Santana and study how they have aged. I imagine the Mets have already done this. The difficulty lies almost entirely in finding pitchers comparable to someone as unique as Johan Santana. A system such as Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA would look at numerous variables, including Santana’s workload, body type, and performance, to come up with such a list. I’m going to dumb it down.
Since the leagues began giving out separate Cy Young awards in 1967, eight pitchers have won the award multiple times before age 30. Santana is one. Denny McLain was the first, but since his career unfortunately ended by the time he reached Santana’s age, I’m going to have to exclude him here. The remaining six are:
Roger Clemens
Age 26-28 (avg): 251 IP, 209 H, 71 BB, 227 K, 2.58 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Age 29-33 (avg): 198 IP, 172 H, 73 BB, 185 K, 3.43 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Age 34: 264 IP, 204 H, 68 BB, 292 K, 2.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
Age 35: 235 IP, 169 H, 88 BB, 271 K, 2.65 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Greg Maddux
Age 26-28: 246 IP, 193 H, 51 BB, 184 K, 2.08 ERA, 0.99 WHIP
Age 29-33: 231 IP, 206 H, 31 BB, 174 K, 2.47 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
Age 34: 249 IP, 225 H, 42 BB, 190 K, 3.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
Age 35: 233 IP, 220 H, 27 BB, 173 K, 3.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
Pedro Martinez
Age 26-28: 221 IP, 159 H, 45 BB, 283 K, 2.25 ERA, 0.92 WHIP
Age 29-33: 187 IP, 145 H, 44 BB, 209 K, 2.78 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
Age 34: 133 IP, 108 H, 39 BB, 137 K, 4.48 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Age 35: 28 IP, 33 H, 7 BB, 32 K, 2.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Jim Palmer
Age 26-28: 250 IP, 207 H, 84 BB, 142 K, 2.49 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Age 29-33: 282 IP, 232 H, 81 BB, 150 K, 2.58 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Age 34: 224 IP, 238 H, 74 BB, 109 K, 3.98 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
Age 35: 127 IP, 117 H, 46 BB, 35 K, 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Bret Saberhagen
Age 26-28: 143 IP, 132 H, 33 BB, 101 K, 3.23 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Age 29-33: 99 IP, 99 H, 15 BB, 70 K, 3.54 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Age 34: 175 IP, 181 H, 29 BB, 100 K, 3.96 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Age 35: 119 IP, 122 H, 11 BB, 61 K, 2.95, 1.12 WHIP
Tom Seaver
Age 26-28: 279 IP, 215 H, 67 BB, 263 K, 2.23 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
Age 29-33: 262 IP, 209 H, 79 BB, 220 K, 2.71 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Age 34: 215 IP, 187 H, 61 BB, 131 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Age 35: 168 IP, 140 H, 59 BB, 101 K, 3.64 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
You may have noticed that something about Roger Clemens’ career path seems a little… off. Unless you’re his agent, you likely believe those great years in Toronto were chemically enhanced. So I’m going to drop Clemens from the sample at this point (reducing our sample size to a pathetic five pitchers). Averaging the rest and changing the ages to years of a potential Santana contract, we get:
Previous 3 seasons: 228 IP, 181 H, 56 BB, 195 K, 2.38 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Years 1-5: 212 IP, 178 H, 50 BB, 165 K, 2.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
Year 6: 199 IP, 188 H, 49 BB, 133 K, 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Year 7: 135 IP, 126 H, 30 BB, 80 K, 3.29 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Johan’s previous three seasons, by the way:
228 IP, 183 H, 48 BB, 239 K, 2.99 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
(avg)
While I’m not about to use a sample of only five pitchers to project out Johan Santana’s career, I think we can reach some general conclusions:
- Even for the best pitchers, there will be a large drop off in performance as they reach their mid-30’s.
- While there is only a negligible difference in performance, a 35 year old pitcher poses a significantly larger durability risk than does a 34 year old pitcher.
As it applies to Johan Santana:
- Over the course of a five year contract, he would likely average 200+ IP per season with an ERA in the low 3’s.
- In the sixth and seventh years of a contract, his ERA would likely increase greatly, quite possibly to around 4.00.
- By the seventh year of a contract, he would be very unlikely to pitch 200 innings with under 150 IP being a distinct possibility.
As I said in the opening paragraph, I believe the Mets need to give Santana seven years if that’s what it takes to get a deal done. But you can certainly see why they would prefer to entice Johan to accept a five year contract with a higher average annual value.
Discuss it here.
Topics: AnyBodyButBengie |
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