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The Initial Reaction: Mets Fans On Edge
By JPSchmack | November 30, 2007
Obviously, there are not very many people happy with today’s trade of Lastings Milledge for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider.
At first glance, it appears to be a deal of similar OF prospects, with the Mets giving up a year or two of age, adding a good defensive catcher, and dumping someone who’s had rumblings of character issues dog him in the past, possibly setting up a three-way trade for the Mets.
However, once you get past that initial look, and really consider the deal, it looks worse and worse for the Mets.
Upon hearing the news, the logical thought is that it hopefully sets the Mets up for another move: Like Church to Oakland for Dan Haren. But the rumors have been flying for over a year that Billy Beane likes Milledge; so there’s no reason for that to be a part of a three-way trade.
Then potentially to Baltimore for Erik Bedard? The thought process being “Maybe Baltimore likes Church – and can’t get him from regional rival Washington – and doesn’t like Milledge; so Omar deftly nabbed Schneider for essentially nothing, since he was willing to give up Milledge in a trade for Bedard.”
But three things cause great concern about the likelihood of Church being dealt:
#1 – The Realization that Ryan Church is, in fact, no longer a prospect at age 29.
He’s two years older than former OF teammate Austin Kearns, who is 27 years old and has played nearly twice as many pro games (676 to 347).
How many other teams really would favor him more than Lastings Milledge? Milledge may have lost the luster of his expected star, but can you ever count on a 29-year old blossoming into a star?
#2 – Omar Minaya has traded for Church before, acquiring him for the Montreal Expos in 2004 from the Cleveland Indians (with Maicer Izturis for Scott Stewart).
Since Omar has shown to have an affinity for “his guys,” it’s likely Church is here to stay.
#3 – The Mets, having lost Shawn Green and retaining Moises Alou, had two corner OFs (Milledge and Alou) who hit lefties well, but don’t excel against righties. Church, to his credit, is a lefty who hits .287 / .360 / .506 / .866 vs righties. So he seems to fit in the Mets 2008 plans more than Milledge would, offering the option of sitting Alou versus righties.
(See number three below for more)
Realizing that Milledge for Church and Schneider was most likely a move made independently by Omar, not part of a bigger deal, here are the seven reasons I hate this trade:
#1 - More Pressing Needs / Opportunity Cost
Quite simply, the biggest reason is because it is not an effective use of resources.
Isn’t Milledge one of our top five trading chips? And isn’t an OF who hits righties (at greatest) the third most-pressing issue our team faces? I’d probably put it as our fifth most pressing need:
1. Ace starter
2. Back-end starter (since we’d have to trade Humber/Pelfrey to get an ace)
3. Reliever
4. Reliever
5. LH outfielder who hits righties.
6. Catcher
7. Bench
We heard Milledge rumors in Santana, Bedard, Haren, etc… why trade him to fill the fifth and sixth most pressing needs?
#2 – Priorities, not Just Weaknesses.
We should address the corner OF concern only AFTER we get a starting pitcher, right? Don’t we want the flexibility of offering different packages to different teams for Santana, Bedard and Haren? What if we’re offered a legitimate No. 2, but only if we accept a salary dump corner OF, who is Green-esque?
What if something changes with a team like San Diego and Jake Peavy… only with their current OF and lineup, they need a righty who hits lefties, not a lefty who hits righties?
#3 - Is that even the route to go with our outfield?
With Alou being 41 years old, wouldn’t it make much more sense to keep the guy who can hit lefties (Milledge) for when Alou gets hurt (and for the next five+ years?), since that skill is more scarce across baseball?
Would it make more sense to trot out Alou-Beltran-Milledge on most days, sign Geoff Jenkins to be a LH pinch hitter and play LF occasionally?
Start Alou-Beltran-Milledge vs all lefties.
Put Jenkins in LF when Alou needs a day off vs a right hander.
Put Jenkins in RF when Milledge needs a day off vs a right-hander (with Chavez for defense).
Signing Jenkins could cost the same amount as this Church and Schneider trade, and add a PH with serious pop to the bench. This would effectively solve items 5-6-7 on the list, and leave us with Milledge and Gomez as trading chips for that ace we so desperately need.
#4 – Isn’t Schneider a lot like Johnny Estrada?
Again, catching is the sixth concern at this point, with Castro and Estrada under our control. Schneider’s a nice defensive catcher, but don’t we have a $3.5 million dollar catcher who plays solid defense but can’t hit already?
I have not seen enough games of Estrada to know how he handles a staff — nor Schneider for that matter. I’ve long thought that the reason Nationals pitchers do well against us is because of our deficiency in advanced scouting of their young pitchers, and not due to Schneider. I could be wrong
I do not trust statistics and metrics for catchers defense; which tells me little and are severely flawed. If in fact Schneider is an excellent defensive catcher, is that really worth sacrificing Milledge for?
The Mets will most-likely non-tender Estrada, meaning they traded Mota for nothing, and downgraded from a 24-year old Milledge to a 29-year old church Church to get a slightly better defensive catcher who can’t hit. Is there a shortage of those?
Omar’s statement about not “robbing Peter to pay Paul” regarding Jose Reyes might not apply here… But isn’t this worse than opening one hole to fill another? This is trading three corks for two corks, and none big enough to plug the top three holes.
#5 - Milledge’s upside vs Church’s upside.
One could argue that Church has more potential, or is a better prospect than Milledge. I would say that Church actually IS a better baseball player at this point than Milledge, but the fact that Church is 29 years old spoils this immensely. Church probably isn’t going to grow by leaps and bounds, whereas Milledge can.
If the Mets were saying “We’re in win-now mode and can’t wait” and traded Milledge for Austin Kearns; who’s three years older than Lastings, has six years of experience, is reasonably inexpensive, and can mash lefties for when Alou gets hurt, that makes some sense.
If Milledge is a prospect who might never reach his potential, we’re still taking a pretty big gamble on Church; since he’s no longer a prospect and might never reach his.
#6 - The Argument of Milledge’s Perceived Attitude Issues are Bunk.
If the Mets made this move to jettison Milledge (as some are now theorizing on message boards), then this move is beyond stupid.
The worst thing any member of the Mets front office has said about Milledge is that, at this stage of his life, he’s somewhat “immature.”
Despite the “Cloud of controversy” around him, what has he ever done to embarrass the team? His rap album had some explicit lyrics, and one could say it’s demeaning to women; however it fits with the socially acceptable context in which he made those statements: Rap music. It’s not as if he made sexist remarks to a reporter.
Now, I’m more than willing to give someone else the benefit of the doubt regarding his comments about his Jewish ex-girlfriend; blown out of proportion by the media which isn’t Christian and turns something of religious nature into a non-PC event.
However, if Milledge is a bad person to have in the clubhouse, what does that make Church? Same off the field issues. Same bad clubhouse reputation. Probably worse. Phrases tossed around by people to describe Ryan Church include multiple words which rhyme with “sick,” “tassle” and “rub blouse dancer.”
#7 – Jose Reyes
Small and nit-picking, but this trade hurts Jose Reyes. Jesus Flores, the likely new catcher for the Nationals, threw out Reyes twice last season on straight steals of second base. That is actually relatively rare. Reyes has been thrown out on a straight steal of second base by the catcher exactly 30 times in his career; 12 last season. So Flores is probably the best there is at throwing out Reyes… and now he’ll play more against us.
Summary for The Skimmers
The positives of this trade:
– Upgrade defensively at catcher
– We do have a slight need for a lefty who hits righties in the OF/bench.
Negatives for this trade:
– Downgrade in potential from Milledge to Church
– Downgrade in age/controllable years from Milledge to Church
– Downgrade from Milledge to Church as a trading chip
– Opportunity cost of losing Milledge as a trading chip.
– Does not prioritize needs (starting pitching; relief pitching)
– Loss of overall talent to roster
– Treads water in terms of clubhouse attitude from Milledge to Church at best
– Schneider had never thrown out Jose Reyes attempting to steal; while the Nats new starting catcher Jesus Flores has done so twice last season.
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