It’s Not Collusion, Barry, It’s The Baggage
By JPSchmack | May 7, 2008
The MLB players’ association has opened an investigation into the free-agent market. The MLBPA has been investigating for several weeks what has taken place in free agency, in relation to Barry Bonds, Kenny Lofton and other players who have gone unsigned. It is something they have done in the past.
Jeff Borris, the agent for Bonds, said, “No team has made me an offer for any amount at any time since Barry became a free agent.”
Now despite the title, I’m going to simply ignore the baggage. From a pure talent standpoint, it might seem that a team would be willing to kick the tires on a player with incredible OBP and power to hit more home runs than anyone, ever. Clearly a team interested would have to be a veteran, contending team with a need. This would preclude: KC, MIN, PIT, STL, CIN, FLA, WAS, TB, TOR, BAL and most importantly, SF and OAK.
Leaving 18 teams who might consider him. Of those teams many simply do not have the need by virtue of the fact that they have either:
a) an incumbant at that position who is clearly a starter in LF in the case of NL teams.
b) a tandem of LF/DH who are also firmly entrenched, including one left hander in the case of AL teams.
Philly (Pat Burrell), Colorado (Holliday), Chicago (Soriano), Milwaukee (Braun), Arizona (Byrnes), Houston (Lee), Los Angeles (Either); Boston (Manny and Ortiz), Chicago (Quentin and Thome), the Yankees (Matsui and Damon), Anaheim (Anderson and Vlad/Hunter/Matthews) would limit potential Bonds suitors to seven teams: NYM, ATL, SD, CLE, DET, SEA, TEX.
Of those seven, five are in the bottom nine in OPS by a LF. Counting down from “least-likely to be interested…”
San Diego (#26 OPS by LF) has offensive problems in LF (and the OF in general). However, much of that is due to ballpark anyhow. The ballpark is a big factor for them, considering it’s one of the largest in the game. Edmonds and Giles have limited range, and since they are 9th in doubles allowed and sixth in doubles allowed already, Bonds in LF would not be beneficial to their defense. Considering they are behind Colorado and Arizona (plus LA) in the division; its unlikely they seriously consider Bonds before the All-Star break.
Atlanta (#22 OPS by LF) could conceivably platoon Bonds and Matt Diaz. However, they appear content to keep payroll to a minimum, as they have for the last five years, and play youngsters. They haven’t paid for a free agent (aside from Glavine’s return) in quite some time. Considering they were widely picked to finish third in the NL East, it’s easy to see why the Braves would only have considered Bonds if he were still looking for a job in mid-summer and they found themselves in contention. However, they now have massive rotation issues with Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine and Hampton all missing time, so their money is better spent elsewhere.
Cleveland (#23 OPS by LF) has no DH opening, between Hafner (LHB) and Garko at 1B/DH; Victor Martinez (S) and Kelly Shoppach at C/DH. Their starting LF (Dellucci) is a lefty, as is Shin-Soo Choo (on the DL). With four of their top offensive players being switch-hitters or LHB, they are probably too left-handed to consider Bonds. Plus there is the money factor.
Texas (#15th in OPS by LF) doesn’t have a huge need. Four of their healthy OFs are left-handed, including both LF: (Catalonotto and David Murphy, both with OPS over .775). They also have Broussard (LH) and Blalock (LH) to DH as well. Throw in the fact that they are already in 8 games back of first, and they really have no reason to get Bonds.
The Mets (#25 OPS by LF) have played exactly three games with their starting LF this season; and with Moises Alou turning in an above average .860 OPS vs righties, Bonds may not be needed. The other issue for the Mets, is that Bonds would make them extremely left-handed. Bonds couldn’t hit third or fourth for the Mets, because they’d need to replace him late for defense (and they used Endy Chavez, a LHB, to replace a 42-year old Alou late in games last season).
The current 4-8 of the Mets features: Beltran (S), Delgado (L), Bonds (L), Church (L), Schneider (L), plus Alou (R) who’d hit the bench for Bonds. That’s four-straight LHB. The only possible configuration for the Mets would be: Reyes (S) - Church (L) - Beltran (S) - Wright (R) - Delgado (L) - Bonds (L)/Alou (R) - Schneider (L) - Castillo (S).
But this would also result in using three LF in a game, Bonds to start, Alou as a situational hitter, and Chavez in a double-switch for defense.
Plus, the addition of Johan Santana’s $20 contract and the rest of the Mets high payroll makes Bonds’ a frivilous expenditure. Especially considering the Mets haven’t seen their offense intact with a healthy Alou to know if they truly have a need.
Realistically, the two teams most often discussed with Bonds are Seattle and Detroit. The AP story from which I stole the first two paragraphs specifically mentioned them as “a classic situation for Bonds — the need for a left-handed hitter and an opening at designated hitter.”
Yet, Seattle is 9th in OPS by LF early in 2008 with the LH hitting Raul Ibanez leading the team in OPS.
The Mariners have a clear need for a power-bat vs RHP (.655 OPS vs RHP as a team). And LH DH candidate Brad Wilkerson is OPSing .663 vs RHP.
Switch-hitting DH Jose Vidro is struggling against everyone and Bonds would look fine in his role. However, while Vidro’s production is opening the door for Bonds, Vidro’s contract is probably what kept the Mariners away: Vidro makes $8.5 million; limiting the teams’ ability to add Bonds.
And Detroit’s DH spot is firmly entrenched by Gary Sheffield. He’s been hampered by injuries and while struggling vs LHP, has done okay with a .732 OPS vs RHP. Detroit expects him to recover. They also have Brandon Inge without a position now because Carlos Guillen is now a 1B/DH as well.
Many point to Jacque Jones’ release as a sign they need a LF, however, due to the injury to start the season to CF Curtis Granderson, they Tigers have been using their LF candidates in CF (Inge, Thames, Ryan Raburn). The Tigers are still the most-likely destination; but will probably give Inge every chance to win the job (and for Sheffield to regain his form) before looking to Bonds.
The other massive factor in all this is Bonds’ durability. Simply mentioning the fact that at age 44, and playing only 842 innings of defense last season eliminates him as a candidate for any team with no need of a DH could have saved a lot of time. Considering most teams would consider Bonds capable of playing at most a half-season, there’s absolutely zero need to contact Bonds before June.
If you’re Seattle, you don’t anticipate Vidro’s OPS being under .600. With Ibanez in LF and Vidro making $8.5, there’s no need to contact Bonds in the off-season. If the team is contending at mid-season and Vidro is struggling vs RHP, then you add him for the stretch.
If you’re Detroit, you’re expected to score oodles of runs with Granderson-Rentaria-Cabrera-Ordonez-Sheffield-Guillen-Polanco-Rodriguez-Jones as your pre-season lineup. If anything, Detroit would need to upgrade speedsters and find a second leadoff man to hit ninth, not a power-bat in the middle with their 3-7. They were widely regarded to dominate half the AL and easily make the playoffs.
For virtually all of baseball, Bonds was ALWAYS only a late-season possibility. If not for position surplus and economic reasons, then for the simple fact that most teams would not want to deal with the media circus which surrounds Bonds unless he was absolutely necessary. And that need would not be known until mid-season.
From a Mets standpoint: You can read the Refugees thoughts on adding Bonds HERE
Personally, I think the Mets should consider offering Bonds a chance to stay in shape in New Orleans, solely to boost attendance in New Orleans. The current Zephyr outfield consists of:
Jesus Feliciano (starting CF; 28 years old); Chris Aguila (Marlins castaway, 29 years old); Valentino Pascucci (29 year-old AAA-lifer signed because he’s from Baton Rouge and hits HR); Victor Mendez (RF/LF; 27 years old); and Brady Clark (who passed waivers, pondered retirement and was 50-50 getting on the plane from his hometown of Portland to continue his career).
Plus the possibility of the DH exists in the PCL, the Zephyrs employed a DH last season vs AL minor league teams at home on multiple occasions; however it seemed exclusively limited to specific series (possibly involving rehabbing players).
Topics: Uncategorized | No Comments »
Jimmy Rollins Placed on Disabled List
By Dan | April 20, 2008
Shortstop Jimmy Rollins (left ankle sprain) and outfielder Chris Snelling (left knee inflammation) were placed on the 15-day disabled list, the Phillies announced today. Snelling is backdated to April 17. To fill their spots on the 25-man roster, infielder Brad Harman was recalled from Double-A Reading and outfielder T.J. Bohn was recalled from Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
Source: MLB.com
Wow, huge loss for the Phillies. Because Rollins has pinch hit several times in the past week, they are also not able to backdate his stay on the disabled list.
Topics: HireDePodesta, News | No Comments »
Citi Field Update 4/12/08
By Dan M. | April 12, 2008
It’s been an eventful first two weeks of the season for the Mets, and it’s also been an eventful two weeks at Citi Field. You can see the latest pictures on the Refugees forum and Webshots.
On Wednesday, April 9th, the “topping off” ceremony was held at Citi Field. The ceremony, signaling the completion of steel work, was marked by construction workers signing a beam and attaching a tree to it before it was lifted into place. This milestone marks the completion of structural work at Citi Field (with the exception of some of the frame for the center field scoreboard, which will be completed soon). With the structural work essentially complete, most of the remaining work will be done on the interior of the ballpark.
Over the past weeks, installation of seats has begun on the promenade level, while on the concourse level, the seating area continues to be extended to full length.
Exterior work also continues, with window panes being installed inside the arched brick facade.
Check back in two weeks for the next Citi Field update.
Topics: Citi Field, nymdan | No Comments »
Position to Fail: Willie’s Use of the Pen vs Philly (4/8/2008)
By JPSchmack | April 9, 2008
Breaking down the Opening Day Bullpen Implosion. Due to time constraints, we skip to the top of the 7th inning, Mets lead 2-0. Joe Smith is the pitcher of record.
Dobbs sent in to PH
Willie replaces Smith with Scott Schoeneweis
The tone is set with a bad move to start. Dobbs is an excellent choice vs Smith (.808 OPS vs RHP in 2007)
* Note: all stats/splits from 2007 season unless noted as career *
Willie should not have brought in a LHP once Dobbs was announced:
Taguchi 1.130 vs LHP
Rollins .917 vs LHP
Victorino .857 vs LHP
Utley .927 vs LHP
You keep a RHP in for those first three, since if you have to choose a match-up, you’d rather it be a bad Taguchi matchup instead of bad matchups with Jimmy Rollins AND Shane Victorino. There’s a reason Rollins won the MVP and Taguchi is a bench player.
The logical move would have been Jorge Sosa (career stats):
Dobbs: 1-3 vs Sosa
Taguchi (probably PH) 3-8 with 3 doubles (1.125 OPS)
Rollins: 6-26 (.726 OPS)
Victorino: 0-3
Utley: 2-12 (.583 OPS)
Taguchi grounds out. Rollins singles. Victorino singles; 1st and 2nd for Utley.
Normally, under no circumstances should Schoeneweis pitch to Utley.
Utley: 4 for 7, 1.339 OPS vs Show in his career.
Willie could have brought in Sosa there, however with one out, you’d face Howard in a bad spot. However, bringing in Sosa then would allow time for Feliciano to get up and get ready for Howard.
Utley HBP. Bases loaded Howard, one out.
All things considered, Show got off easy vs Utley.
Schoeneweis vs Howard is a good matchup. Howard is 1-6 vs him, and you need a LH pitching to him.
Delgado error, two runs score, tie game.
You can’t blame Willie for Delgado’s miscue. But the fact remains, he had better choices before it got to this spot. It’s the seventh inning, you’re planning on Heilman in the eighth, Wagner in the ninth. With an off day yesterday, you HAVE to play matchups in the 7th. You don’t need to save Feliciano for a later matchup with Howard and Utley, because your closer is a lefty.
The logical progression for this inning, AND ALL FUTURE MEETINGS WITH PHILLY, would be:
Sosa starts the 7th in situations like this (vs Rollins and Victorino, who hit lefties better), and then you bring in a Feliciano for Utley and Howard.
Burrell up, 1st and 2nd. One out.
Sosa replaces Schoeneweis, double-switch puts Chavez in LF, hitting ninth ; Pitcher’s spot up sixth.
Pitching wise, good move now on Willie’s part. Damage has been done, but Sosa is a good matchup with Burrell. Burrell is 0-14 vs Sosa career, with a pair of walks.
Burrell flies out. Werth up, 1st and 3rd, 2 out
Jayson Werth is 1-4 with a 2B, vs Sosa. and you don’t strategize for Jayson Werth and the bottom of the order when you’ve already used two pitchers in the inning. Why give them the chance to plan better?
Werth singles, 3-2, 1st and 2nd for Feliz
Feliz was 2 for 6 with two doubles vs Sosa. Don’t like the matchup, but you can’t bring in another guy here.
Sosa gets Feliz to end the inning.
Bottom of the seventh
Durbin comes in, vs Schneider-Chavez-Reyes
Schneider singles. Chavez up.
This is a good matchup, but Willie didn’t really see it coming unless Durbin was the only guy up in the bullpen when he went out and replaced Show with Sosa. Even then, the Phils had time to get someone else up if they wanted for the top of the Mets order.
Had Willie gone with Sosa FIRST, he wouldn’t have to double switch, and he could have PH with Chavez for Sosa if he had Show still in the pen. But since the game was tied when he brought in Sosa, he had to preserve the bench in case of extra innings.
The double-switch wasn’t a mistake, it was logically quite sound. But he was forced into it by not starting the inning with Sosa.
Chavez hits into a DP.
Reyes singles.
Easley up, 2 outs
Can’t do anything here, he’s got no more 2B.
Easley ends the inning
Top 8: Due up: Ruiz, Taguchi, Rollins
Heilman takes over for Sosa.
Again, right move, because it’s the bottom of the lineup and you want a righty for Rollins/Victorino.
Heilman walks Ruiz
Taguchi sacrifices
Again, we’re still OK. You want a righty vs Rollins and Victorino.
Rollins singles, goes to 2nd on passed ball, Victorino walks
This inning is all on Schneider.
1st and 2nd, one out for Utley
Here’s where Willie’s earlier moves have backed him into a corner. You’re out of your mind to pitch Heilman vs Utley:
Utley 1.004 vs RHP last year; 1.222 OPS vs Heilman career.
However, Willie decides since he’s now trailing, he can’t use all your pitchers if you’re trying to get to extras.
But with Utley and Howard coming up with one out, why would you not go with Feliciano?
Utley has a lower OPS vs lefties and is 3-17 vs Feliciano with 9 Ks (.712 OPS career)
He’s also the guy you want pitching to HOWARD in this situation, too (4 for 14 vs Feliciano career)
Plus the best PH on the Philly bench is Geoff Jenkins, who can’t hit lefties to save his life.
Heilman stays in the game
Utley doubles, 5-2. Howard walked intentionally. Jenkins PH. Jenkins popped out, Werth flies out.
Muniz mops up in the ninth. Mets offense fails to get three runs. Ballgame.
How it should have played out:
Dobbs is announced. Willie can either let Smith take on Dobbs or go with Sosa.
If you go with Sosa, Jenkins would pinch hit because he owns Sosa.
That’s not ideal, but it gets Jenkins out of the game when the worst-case scenario is a solo homer.
But Sosa definitely takes over with no outs in the seventh.
He pitches until Utley comes up (ideally its, 1-2-3)
Feliciano comes in when Utley comes to bat.
If it’s the eight inning we’re golden. If not, Feliciano is still pitching to Utley and Howard. If he sees Werth in the eighth, that’s fine: because Heilman can’t get Werth out (2-for-3). And they aren’t pinch hitting for Werth with Jenkins against Feliciano (if Jenkins is still available).
After Werth, if it’s in the eighth, you go to Heilman.
Ideally, Werth ends the eighth, and it’s Wagner time in the ninth.
If it’s tied or we trail in the ninth, and it’s anyone 7-8-9-1 in the top of the ninth, then we go right back to the reasoning stated above:
If we’re trailing in the ninth, Schoeneweis faces the 9-hole hitter (which could still be Jenkins).
A righty (Heilman) pitches to Rollins-Victorino.
Then Wagner in the 9th or 10th vs Utley-Howard-Werth and beyond.
If the game goes longer, you throw Muniz to the wolves.
I realize I have the benefit of hindsight, but I didn’t actually use what happened as a decision-making factor: I simply used the stats available to our staff prior to the game: 2007 splits, career pitcher vs hitter splits.
This should be the logic for all future games with the Phillies:
In the 7th and beyond, we use Feliciano, Wagner or Schoeneweis vs Utley, Howard, Werth and Jenkins .
We use Sosa, Heilman, Muniz, whomever vs Rollins, Victorino, and anyone else.
Discuss in the MetsRefugees Forum
Topics: Uncategorized | No Comments »
How the pitching lines up over the next week
By Dan M. | April 4, 2008
Tonight’s game against Atlanta has been rained out. The game will be made up as part of a doubleheader on May 20th.
According to John Delcos of The Journal News, here’s how the Mets pitching will line up over the next week:
Saturday at Atlanta: John Maine vs. Tim Hudson
Sunday at Atlanta: Johan Santana vs. Tom Glavine
Tuesday vs. Philadelphia: Oliver Perez
Wednesday vs. Philadelphia: Mike Pelfrey
Thursday vs. Philadelphia: John Maine
Friday vs. Milwaukee: Johan Santana
Topics: nymdan | No Comments »
Pedro Injury Update: Strained Left Hammy
By Dan | April 1, 2008
According to Gary Cohen on the SNY Broadcast, the preliminary word on Pedro’s injury is a strained left hamstring. He is day-to-day, but it’s unlikely Pedro will be unable to avoid the disabled list. Expect more word on the injury tomorrow after an MRI is conducted.
Topics: Uncategorized | No Comments »
Pelfrey 5th Starter
By Dan | March 30, 2008
According to Bart Hubbuch of the NY Post, the Mets have named Pelfrey the 5th starter. He will make his first start against the Braves on Saturday. El Duque will start the season on the DL, and stay in Port St. Lucie to continue his rehab.
(Source)
Topics: Uncategorized | No Comments »
Smith and Clark Make Team
By Dan | March 30, 2008
According to various sources on the internet, both Joe Smith and Brady Clark have made the 25-man roster. However, there’s still no word on who will be the Mets’ 5th starter.
Topics: Uncategorized | No Comments »
Citi Field Update 3/29/08
By Dan M. | March 29, 2008
Here is this week’s Citi Field update. As always, you can see the latest pictures on the Refugees forum and Webshots.
With only ten days until the Mets home opener, most of the visible changes over the past two weeks have been related to infrastructure work. Work continues at a rapid pace on the new subway entrance/exit as well as the nearby MTA information booth. The parking lot on the Roosevelt Avenue side of Citi Field has been fully repaved.
As for the park itself, installation of the precast facade is now complete with the exception of a small area on the first base side where a construction elevator is attached.
The first supports for the center field scoreboard are now in place. Once the scoreboard supports are complete, Citi Field’s structural steel will be 100% completed.
With the structure almost completely in place, the majority of the work being done is happening inside the ballpark, where the front rows of precast risers for the concourse level seating will soon be put into place. The interior progress can be seen in islandxtreme26’s photos that were linked to the other day.
Also, according to a construction worker who posts on Baseball Fever, preparation work has started for the promenade level (upper deck) seating, and the seats themselves will begin to be installed soon, possibly as early as Thursday.
Make sure to visit the Refugees forum or Webshots for pictures of Citi Field from inside Shea a few hours after the conclusion of the home opener, and check back here soon for the next Citi Field update.
Topics: Citi Field, nymdan | No Comments »
New Citi Field interior pictures
By Dan M. | March 26, 2008
Chris S., aka islandxtreme26, has taken another great batch of pictures taken inside Citi Field.
Besides giving us a rare view of the interior work, Chris took some nice pictures of the work going on outside of the stadium, as workers get the the new subway exit and the parking lots ready for Opening Day.
You can see the pictures here.
Topics: Citi Field, nymdan | 1 Comment »
« Previous Entries